Trading Now

Friday, October 9, 2015
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Friday, October 2, 2015
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Monday, September 28, 2015
Sunday, September 27, 2015
It will be a busy week with lots of volatility: Personal Income, Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing on Monday, Redbook, Case Shiller Home Prices and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Chicago PMI and Crude Inventories and Yellen speaking at 2PM on Wednesday, Jobless claims, PMI Manufacturing, ISM and Construction spending on Thursday and end of month window dressing, the big Jobs numbers, Factory Orders and a slew of fed squawkers on Friday. Should be interesting to say the least.
SPY has to get above 195 and 197.50 in order to attempt a break above 205.00.
I believe banks are key right now if JPM can get above $62.50. An increase in rates is helpful to banks, they can earn more money on their loans. But due to global uncertainly, and not just in China, JPM continues to support a bearish bias down to $32.
Crude is also weighing on indices, especially the SPY which is heavily weighted in energy.
If oil cannot get above $47.50 and continue upward, then a retest of the $40 level is in play, which could lead finally to the $30-20 price that traders have been concerned about all year long.
SPY has to get above 195 and 197.50 in order to attempt a break above 205.00.
Crude is also weighing on indices, especially the SPY which is heavily weighted in energy.
If oil cannot get above $47.50 and continue upward, then a retest of the $40 level is in play, which could lead finally to the $30-20 price that traders have been concerned about all year long.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Say what you will, but in my opinion, the only CEO from the crisis that doesn't deserve jail (let alone cancer, but who does except maybe Rumsfeld or certain ex-husbands who will remain nameless...) is Blankfein, head of Goldman Sachs.
We find out today:
We find out today:
Business News
|
Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:27pm EDT
Goldman CEO Blankfein says has 'highly curable' form of cancer
By Olivia Oran and Richa Naidu
Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc, said on Tuesday he had a "highly curable" form of cancer and would be able to work mostly as normal during treatment.The
veteran Wall Street boss, who navigated the U.S. investment bank
through the financial crisis, told employees and shareholders he would
undergo chemotherapy for lymphoma over the next several months in New
York.
The bank's shares slid 2.6 percent to $178.56 after the surprise announcement, which puts Goldman's succession plans under the spotlight, although the market was broadly lower.
While Blankfein, 61, is undergoing treatment, other senior bank officials, including his top deputy, Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, will assume some of his responsibilities in dealing with the public, a person familiar with the matter said.
Cohn, who is seen as the most likely successor to Blankfein if he left his post in the near future, replaced his boss at the last minute at a public discussion in New York on Monday night.
The firm has a number of long-serving senior executives, including Vice Chairman Michael Sherwood, investment banking co-head David Solomon, Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and Chief Strategy Officer Stephen Scherr, who investors said offered stability.
"The culture of the firm transcends one person," said Mike Donnelly, senior vice president and portfolio manager at CS McKee, which manages $10.5 billion and owns Goldman shares.
"Obviously Blankfein has done a great job and embodies the culture, but in terms of this changing the investment thesis given the valuation, no absolutely not."
In a statement, Blankfein said he underwent tests after not feeling well in late summer. He did not disclose the type of lymphoma, a cancer that affects the immune system, or how advanced it is.
He received a final diagnosis on Monday around midday, and informed Goldman's board of directors around 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT), the source said.
RAGS-TO-RICHES STORY
Blankfein has led what is viewed as the most powerful U.S. investment bank since 2006, and bank executives say he has never hinted at when he might retire or his plans after Goldman.
The New Yorker is credited with helping to keep the firm afloat during the financial crisis with an early decision to rein in exposure to risky mortgage-backed securities and a successful appeal to Warren Buffett to invest in the firm during the chaotic days after Lehman Brothers went bust.
Goldman's role in the U.S. housing bubble and the billions of dollars paid out in bonuses to its top staffers have made the firm a magnet for popular anger about Wall Street. Rolling Stone magazine once referred to the firm as the "vampire squid" of finance.
Blankfein, a former chain-smoking gold trader, has helped improve the bank's public image and make the transition from a pure investment bank to one with a greater exposure to commercial lending.
Blankfein's No. 2, Cohn, has followed a similar career path as his boss. Like Blankfein, Cohn got his start at commodities firm J. Aron & Co, which Goldman then acquired. He has been COO as long as Blankfein has been CEO and is 6 years younger.
Blankfein's life is a classic rags-to-riches story. Born in the South Bronx and raised in a housing project in the East New York neighborhood of Brooklyn, he worked his way through Harvard College and Harvard Law School, helped by financial aid.
Blankfein's disclosure comes a little more than a year after JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon said he had throat cancer. Dimon continued to lead the bank during treatment.
Dimon wished his rival a fast recovery on Tuesday.
Lymphoma is cancer that begins in the lymphatic system, which is a part of the immune system that carries away waste and transports white-blood cells that attack disease. It can occur as Hodgkin lymphoma, which has a five-year survival rate of about 86 percent, or non-Hodgkin lymphoma, which has a five-year survival rate of about 70 percent.
Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, an oncologist who is deputy chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, said chemotherapy is the main treatment for both Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin disease. Individuals in their 60s and 70s are more likely to have the more common and harder-to-treat non-Hodgkin variety of the blood cancer, which affects the body's infection-fighting white blood cells, he said.
Depending on where enlarged lymph nodes are found, and their size, he said doctors may use radiation as well as chemotherapy.
"There are many people who are dealing with cancer every day," Blankfein said. "I draw on their experiences as I begin my own. I have a lot of energy and I'm anxious to begin the treatment."
(Reporting by Olivia Oran in New York and Richa Naidu in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Ransdell Pierson in New York; Editing by Dan Wilchins, Kirti Pandey and Jeffrey Benkoe)
The bank's shares slid 2.6 percent to $178.56 after the surprise announcement, which puts Goldman's succession plans under the spotlight, although the market was broadly lower.
While Blankfein, 61, is undergoing treatment, other senior bank officials, including his top deputy, Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, will assume some of his responsibilities in dealing with the public, a person familiar with the matter said.
Cohn, who is seen as the most likely successor to Blankfein if he left his post in the near future, replaced his boss at the last minute at a public discussion in New York on Monday night.
The firm has a number of long-serving senior executives, including Vice Chairman Michael Sherwood, investment banking co-head David Solomon, Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and Chief Strategy Officer Stephen Scherr, who investors said offered stability.
"The culture of the firm transcends one person," said Mike Donnelly, senior vice president and portfolio manager at CS McKee, which manages $10.5 billion and owns Goldman shares.
"Obviously Blankfein has done a great job and embodies the culture, but in terms of this changing the investment thesis given the valuation, no absolutely not."
In a statement, Blankfein said he underwent tests after not feeling well in late summer. He did not disclose the type of lymphoma, a cancer that affects the immune system, or how advanced it is.
He received a final diagnosis on Monday around midday, and informed Goldman's board of directors around 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT), the source said.
RAGS-TO-RICHES STORY
Blankfein has led what is viewed as the most powerful U.S. investment bank since 2006, and bank executives say he has never hinted at when he might retire or his plans after Goldman.
The New Yorker is credited with helping to keep the firm afloat during the financial crisis with an early decision to rein in exposure to risky mortgage-backed securities and a successful appeal to Warren Buffett to invest in the firm during the chaotic days after Lehman Brothers went bust.
Goldman's role in the U.S. housing bubble and the billions of dollars paid out in bonuses to its top staffers have made the firm a magnet for popular anger about Wall Street. Rolling Stone magazine once referred to the firm as the "vampire squid" of finance.
Blankfein, a former chain-smoking gold trader, has helped improve the bank's public image and make the transition from a pure investment bank to one with a greater exposure to commercial lending.
Blankfein's No. 2, Cohn, has followed a similar career path as his boss. Like Blankfein, Cohn got his start at commodities firm J. Aron & Co, which Goldman then acquired. He has been COO as long as Blankfein has been CEO and is 6 years younger.
Blankfein's life is a classic rags-to-riches story. Born in the South Bronx and raised in a housing project in the East New York neighborhood of Brooklyn, he worked his way through Harvard College and Harvard Law School, helped by financial aid.
Blankfein's disclosure comes a little more than a year after JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon said he had throat cancer. Dimon continued to lead the bank during treatment.
Dimon wished his rival a fast recovery on Tuesday.
Lymphoma is cancer that begins in the lymphatic system, which is a part of the immune system that carries away waste and transports white-blood cells that attack disease. It can occur as Hodgkin lymphoma, which has a five-year survival rate of about 86 percent, or non-Hodgkin lymphoma, which has a five-year survival rate of about 70 percent.
Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, an oncologist who is deputy chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, said chemotherapy is the main treatment for both Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin disease. Individuals in their 60s and 70s are more likely to have the more common and harder-to-treat non-Hodgkin variety of the blood cancer, which affects the body's infection-fighting white blood cells, he said.
Depending on where enlarged lymph nodes are found, and their size, he said doctors may use radiation as well as chemotherapy.
"There are many people who are dealing with cancer every day," Blankfein said. "I draw on their experiences as I begin my own. I have a lot of energy and I'm anxious to begin the treatment."
(Reporting by Olivia Oran in New York and Richa Naidu in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Ransdell Pierson in New York; Editing by Dan Wilchins, Kirti Pandey and Jeffrey Benkoe)
Well, I pretty much nailed the high of the SPY a few weeks ago. I also said we could retest the lows.
Here we are: ON OUR WAY
Retail sales sucked today in Redbook.
Tsipras is AGAIN Prime Minister of bankrupt Greece.
China is too lackadaisical in its attempts at QE, according to the US anyway.
Market unable to build steam above its 200 day moving average due to the Feds inability to do something?
Need I say more??
I fully expect a retest of the low and a low of 1700 before all is said and done.
Here we are: ON OUR WAY
Retail sales sucked today in Redbook.
Tsipras is AGAIN Prime Minister of bankrupt Greece.
China is too lackadaisical in its attempts at QE, according to the US anyway.
Market unable to build steam above its 200 day moving average due to the Feds inability to do something?
Need I say more??
I fully expect a retest of the low and a low of 1700 before all is said and done.
Friday, September 18, 2015
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Some light reading:
Personally I think its all rubbish. The truth is Element Capital is trading in bonds just like every other HFT (including bankster scheisters). The swings are insane. The ES, ZB, and ZN all trade like CL right now. That is machines unwinding and winding positions, scalping here and there. Interest rates are just the excuse. Do not be fooled.
Element Capital Management, a hedge fund run by Jeffrey Talpins, is yet another example of everything that is wrong on Wall Street today. The issue here is not that Element is doing anything illegal or even shady, but rather just another example of the "anything goes" attitude that pervades U.S. financial markets. Taking advantage of a flawed system is not "good business". It does not create GDP or employment, it merely enriches Talpins and his investors and exacerbates the growing wealth inequality problem.
Apparently, Talpins is leveraging his $6 billion hedge fund to buy many times that amount of U.S. treasury notes and bonds at auctions, and then sell them back into the market again for a slight profit, often within just a few hours.
According to sources who spoke to Carolyn Cui and Gregory Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal, Element Capital has been the largest bidder in nearly all of the 62 Treasury note and bond auctions for the eight months between November and July, these people said. At most of the auctions, many of which saw $30 billion debt sold, Element purchased close 10% of the total issue.
Obviously, the Treasury Department wants to know the identity of large-scale bond buyers because it prefers long-term holders such as pension funds, insurance firms and central banks. Treasury officials rightfully worry that large trades made by Hedge Funds will result in sales that artificially jack up treasury market volatility and potentially increase borrowing costs.
“If you’re issuing debt, your preference is those ‘sticky
investors,’” notes Scott Skyrm, a managing director at Wedbush
Securities.
Analysts highlight that Element Capital is a “macro” fund that invests in bond, stock and currency markets based on global macroeconomic trends.
One of the WSJ sources said that Element had been shorting bonds in anticipation of higher interest rates, but has recently been unwinding that wager, requiring them to buy Treasurys.
Other sources close to the firm say there is another reason: Element Capital is one of the last hedge funds that that still makes trades trying to make profit from the effects of supply and demand in the Treasury market. It works because demand for bonds goes up and down on factors such as perceptions of growth and market risk, while supply is based on regular auctions of different-maturity securities by the Treasury. Rather obviously, new supply tends to slightly depress prices for short periods of time, sometimes just for an hour or two.
Talpins is a trader formerly at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). He has a reputation for an intense, self-centered personality that can lead to clashes with rivals. He even tested the patience of ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke by asking 10 consecutive questions in an important meeting with the chairman and a number of other hedge fund execs.
Personally I think its all rubbish. The truth is Element Capital is trading in bonds just like every other HFT (including bankster scheisters). The swings are insane. The ES, ZB, and ZN all trade like CL right now. That is machines unwinding and winding positions, scalping here and there. Interest rates are just the excuse. Do not be fooled.
Hedge Fund Element Capital Is Dominating US Treasury Market
Posted By: Clayton BrowneElement Capital Management, a hedge fund run by Jeffrey Talpins, is yet another example of everything that is wrong on Wall Street today. The issue here is not that Element is doing anything illegal or even shady, but rather just another example of the "anything goes" attitude that pervades U.S. financial markets. Taking advantage of a flawed system is not "good business". It does not create GDP or employment, it merely enriches Talpins and his investors and exacerbates the growing wealth inequality problem.
Apparently, Talpins is leveraging his $6 billion hedge fund to buy many times that amount of U.S. treasury notes and bonds at auctions, and then sell them back into the market again for a slight profit, often within just a few hours.
According to sources who spoke to Carolyn Cui and Gregory Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal, Element Capital has been the largest bidder in nearly all of the 62 Treasury note and bond auctions for the eight months between November and July, these people said. At most of the auctions, many of which saw $30 billion debt sold, Element purchased close 10% of the total issue.
Obviously, the Treasury Department wants to know the identity of large-scale bond buyers because it prefers long-term holders such as pension funds, insurance firms and central banks. Treasury officials rightfully worry that large trades made by Hedge Funds will result in sales that artificially jack up treasury market volatility and potentially increase borrowing costs.
Analysts highlight that Element Capital is a “macro” fund that invests in bond, stock and currency markets based on global macroeconomic trends.
One of the WSJ sources said that Element had been shorting bonds in anticipation of higher interest rates, but has recently been unwinding that wager, requiring them to buy Treasurys.
Other sources close to the firm say there is another reason: Element Capital is one of the last hedge funds that that still makes trades trying to make profit from the effects of supply and demand in the Treasury market. It works because demand for bonds goes up and down on factors such as perceptions of growth and market risk, while supply is based on regular auctions of different-maturity securities by the Treasury. Rather obviously, new supply tends to slightly depress prices for short periods of time, sometimes just for an hour or two.
Talpins is a trader formerly at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). He has a reputation for an intense, self-centered personality that can lead to clashes with rivals. He even tested the patience of ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke by asking 10 consecutive questions in an important meeting with the chairman and a number of other hedge fund execs.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Friday, September 4, 2015
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
Well well well, seems I nailed it yesterday with that 190.40 call (yeah yeah 190.74, come on....).
Buying the dips is still in play. But retesting the lows is as well. Sorry to disappoint all you bulls out there, but indicators are still bearish. In fact, bearish for SPY all the way down to 153.00.
Now that would be a correction boys and girls.
For Thursdays Trading
8:30am Unemployment Claims
9:45am PMI
10:00am ISM Non-Manufacturing
10:30am Natty Gas
Buying the dips is still in play. But retesting the lows is as well. Sorry to disappoint all you bulls out there, but indicators are still bearish. In fact, bearish for SPY all the way down to 153.00.
Now that would be a correction boys and girls.
For Thursdays Trading
8:30am Unemployment Claims
9:45am PMI
10:00am ISM Non-Manufacturing
10:30am Natty Gas
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Well, a pictures worth a thousand words. The bounce at 190.73 went to close at 191.92.
Doesn't get any better than this. I nailed it at 190.40. If my 8 ball was working to the tee I wouldn't be wasting my time with this blog people......
Tomorrow should be interesting indeed:
Mortgage Applications at 7:00am
ADP Employment at 8:15am
Productivity Costs at 8:30am
Factory Orders at 10:00am
Crude Inventories at 10:30am
Beige Book at 2:00pm
Doesn't get any better than this. I nailed it at 190.40. If my 8 ball was working to the tee I wouldn't be wasting my time with this blog people......
Tomorrow should be interesting indeed:
Mortgage Applications at 7:00am
ADP Employment at 8:15am
Productivity Costs at 8:30am
Factory Orders at 10:00am
Crude Inventories at 10:30am
Beige Book at 2:00pm
You can't really see it on this chart so you'll have to trust me. If you use Think or Swim trading platform, you can see this gap waiting to be filled on the YTD Daily bar chart. The level is 190.40.
We could get a very healthy bounce off there or we could retest the lows of 181.92. The Federal Reserve and Jackson Hole speak holds the key. The market is becoming increasingly pissed off about the rhetoric. Caution is at a market premium.
Use Stops!!!!!
We could get a very healthy bounce off there or we could retest the lows of 181.92. The Federal Reserve and Jackson Hole speak holds the key. The market is becoming increasingly pissed off about the rhetoric. Caution is at a market premium.
Use Stops!!!!!
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