Revisiting the Mega-Bear Quartet
February 4, 2009 Updated
from dshort.com
Here's a update of the Mega-Bear Quartet. In addition to the latest prices, these charts now have the horizontal axis normalized to elapsed years.
To see the mega-bear comparison more clearly, here's musical analogy that allows you to view the similarities incrementally. Use the blue links to add the parts.
This latest update now includes an inflation-adjusted chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare the peak of the Dow rally in year seven against the nominal chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the great depression.
It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the Nikkei, 19 years after its crash. The current lows rival the traumatic Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.
Over the past few decades, equity markets in the U.S. have had an extended bull run. These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.
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