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Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Insider Trading Has Been on the Rise: Buffett and Toll are the Biggest Beneficiaries

*there are two things of note here for me. One is that Big Ole Bob has been touting for months about how the housing market has been turning around, especially with all the government largesse thrown at the likes of builders (Toll Brothers), and how his company has been weathering the storm with more success than other builders. Yet the ENTIRE time, he has been selling off his stock holdings in ever increasing numbers. One example is that I was watching him on Squawk Box in the morning giving an interview about how everything is la te da, and then in the afternoon he is selling the company's stock. You know who is selling ETrades stock? No one. So you do the math. Scheisters come in all shapes and sizes. CEO's are usually the worst!


via ZeroHedge.com
It seems like yesterday that Bob Toll was propounding the benefits of stimulus packages for housing and the ever improving status of new home sales (solidly grounded in the same sands as Dubai is now sinking into). Yet while we at Zero Hedge have enjoyed taking repeated stabs at Mr. Toll's seemingly endless selling of his own stock, we have not learned our lesson. Which is why we present his insider transaction in a new and original way, courtesy of Bloomberg. As the image indicates, Mr. Toll's money is roughly 180 degrees from where his mouth is.
Yet Bob is an amateur when compared to such prominent patriots as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, both of which have repeatedly stated their support for the good ole' US of A. Indicatively, we present the most recent transactions by both Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett in BRK/B shares. This insider trading pattern is comparable for most other holdings of these two truly patriotic gentlemen.
Mr Buffett:


*the second thing to consider here is whether Warren has lost his investing touch. Just look at when he started to get his SELL signals, when it was too late in most instances. Buffett has bought huge stakes in WFC, HOG, GE and GS. If I were a gambling girl, and I am, I would SELL SELL SELL. And most of Warren's trading is done under the guise of Dark Pools. Something small retail investors like you and I never get to see until after the fact. -Tradebum

Obama Speaks on Jobs

DECEMBER 8, 2009, 12:13 P.M. ET Obama Focuses on Jobs, Infrastructure, Energy
WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama proposed small business tax cuts, home retrofits and infrastructure investment as ways to accelerate job growth Tuesday, saying more programs are needed to boost the weak labor market and ensure the recovery takes hold for Main Street.
In a major speech at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Obama said he also wants to extend fiscal stimulus programs that would provide unemployment insurance for out-of-work Americans and help laid-off workers keep their health insurance.
Additionally, the White House wants to provide $250 payments to seniors and veterans and act on measures that could help local governments keep teachers and police officers employed.
Pointing to better-than-expected job market data last week, the president said the economy is on the right track. But more steps are needed to make sure that job growth matches up with economic growth, he said.
"Even though we have reduced the deluge of job losses to a relative trickle, we are not yet creating jobs at a pace to help all those families who have been swept up in the flood," he said. "There are more than seven million fewer Americans with jobs today than when this recession began. And it speaks to an urgent need to accelerate job growth in the short term while laying a new foundation for lasting economic growth."
The president's speech comes just days after holding a jobs summit at the White House where chief executives and nonprofit groups offered up solutions to the nation's unemployment challenges.
Tax cuts are a key part of Mr. Obama's plans, primarily those aimed at small business. The White House, for instance, announced plans to work with Congress to create a short-term tax incentive to encourage small business hiring.
The president also proposed a one-year elimination of the tax on capital gains from new investments in small business stock. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 -- the fiscal stimulus program Congress passed earlier this year -- had allowed a 75% exclusion from capital gains taxes on small business investments.

Other proposals include:
An extension through 2010 of stimulus provisions that allow small businesses to immediately expense up to $250,000 of qualified investment.
An extension of fiscal stimulus policies that accelerate the rate at which business can deduct the cost of capital expenditures. The White House says that provision will put more than $20 billion in the hands of businesses in 2010, while enabling the Treasury to recoup much of the funding as businesses regain their strength.
Eliminating fees and increasing guarantees for small businesses that borrow through Small Business Administration programs next year.
The White House is also mulling ways to use the Troubled Asset Relief Program for new legislation to create jobs and revive lending for small businesses.
Key Republicans argue that reusing funds from the $700 billion financial-rescue fund is illegal, and White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Tuesday morning there is "fairly strict law" as to how TARP can and can't be used.
Still, the White House says there may be ways to tap into TARP to boost the weak labor market while also staying consistent with the original goals of the bailout. Other proposals that don't fall in line with TARP's objectives will be paid differently, Mr. Gibbs told reporters.
The Obama administration has said it now estimates that the long-term cost of TARP will be more than $200 billion less than the administration had presumed just months ago. That's largely because large banks are paying back substantial amounts of TARP funds.
"Since the Obama administration has taken office, only $7 billion has been provided in assistance to banks, compared to $114 billion in capital that banks subject to the "stress test" have raised from the private sector," the White House said in background documents Tuesday. "These savings will allow us to pay down the deficit faster than was anticipated while also investing funds that would have gone to banks in job creating efforts instead."

Meredith Whitney says Troubled Consumers Causing Pessisim for Recovery

Government 'Out of Bullets'; Consumers in Trouble: Whitney
CNBC.com

The government is running out of ways to help the economy as the US faces major issues regarding credit and employment ahead, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.
"I think they're out of bullets," Whitney said in an interview during which she reinforced remarks she made last month indicating she is strongly pessimistic about the prospects for recovery.
Primary among her concerns is the lack of credit access for consumers who she said are "getting kicked out of the financial system." She said that will be the prevailing trend in 2010.
Despite being able to borrow at near-zero percent interest, banks are not taking that money and putting it back into the marketplace. The Federal Reserve said Monday that consumer lending dropped 1.7 percent on an annualized basis in October, the ninth straight monthly decline.
With consumer spending making up about 70 percent of gross domestic product, the inability of even credit-worthy consumers being able to be able to borrow could put a severe crimp in future growth.
"What's so frustrating is you have an administration that is arguing such a populist (ideology) and not appreciating all the unintended consequences that the consumer and small businesses have far less credit," Whitney said.
"You're going to get a situation where you revert from a consumer standpoint," she added, "where those that had bank accounts for the first time, credit cards for the first time, homes for the first time get kicked out of the system and then fall prey to real predatory lenders."
The problems taken together also will pose difficulties for investors.
"I have 100 percent conviction that the consumer is not getting any better and there's not more liquidity," Whitney said. "So if everything touching the consumer is going to be represented in the S&P, then the S&P is going to be under pressure."
The solution, she said, is for the government to take proactive steps that will give consumers more money to spend.
"I don't think you can cut taxes enough to stimulate demand," Whitney said. "For a 2010 prediction, which is so disturbing on so many levels to have so many Americans be kicked out of the financial system and the consequences both political and economic of that, it's a real issue. You can't get around it. This has never happened before in this country."

HEADLINE NEWS

Creditors plan to pressure Dubai World to sell assets
Creditors of Dubai World said they plan to sue the company to force it to sell assets. Activist hedge fund QVT is spearheading the move, which would ask the court to force the sale of not only the waterfront real estate that guarantees Dubai World's debt but also ports and foreign real estate assets that are owned by the company's investment division, Istithmar. Dubai World is restructuring $26 billion in debt, but about 40% of foreign creditors said they might reject the terms of the restructuring. The New York Times (07 Dec.)

Cost of debt restructurings in Dubai might soar, analysts say:
Morgan Stanley analysts said the debt restructuring of state companies in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, might reach $46.7 billion. Dubai Holding, Dubai Sukuk Center, Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group and Borse Dubai might need to restructure their debt alongside Dubai World, the analysts said. "We believe that a haircut on the external debt at risk in the area of 40% to 50% is necessary to have a notable long-term favorable impact on public debt dynamics," the analysts wrote in a report. Bloomberg (08 Dec.)

Next crisis to be in commercial real estate, experts say
A crisis looms for the commercial real estate market in 2010, then for the government-debt market, particularly in the U.S., investment managers said. "I think the next shoe to drop, which will be the world's biggest shoe, is the continued decline of the dollar and ultimately the breaking of the U.S. government market, which will set the other markets on another terrible path," said Steve Shenfeld, president of MidOcean Credit Partners. The danger of default on commercial real estate also is a major threat, Shenfeld said. Reuters (07 Dec.)

S&P warns about sovereign-debt ratings of Greece, Portugal
Standard & Poor's put the single-A-minus rating on Greece's sovereign debt on negative credit watch. In late October, Moody's Investors Service put Greece's currency ratings on review for a possible downgrade. S&P also put Portugal's sovereign-credit rating on "negative" outlook, citing deterioration in public finances. The Wall Street Journal (08 Dec.)

Most investors see dark pools as "problematic," survey finds
A survey by the policy arm of the CFA Institute found that 70% of investors said dark pools are at least somewhat "problematic" for market volatility as well as price discovery. Nearly 60% of respondents said the opaque systems also are problematic for market liquidity. The report was done to see how fragmentation of European markets has affected price formation, transparency and costs. "If it appears that there is a problem, if we find out there are distortions that might have an impact on investor protection, then we might have to step in," said Eddy Wymeersch, chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (08 Dec.)

U.S. companies plan to hire next quarter, survey finds
U.S. companies are set to begin hiring again next quarter, according to a survey by Manpower. The provider of temporary workers said its index of employment for January through March rose to 6 from negative 2 for this quarter. "Companies are seeing some demand so they don't want to let anyone else go," said Jeffrey Joerres, CEO of Manpower. "They anticipate a slow but positive 2010." Bloomberg (08 Dec.)

Monday, December 7, 2009

More Interesting Charts: SPX, Fed's Balance Sheet, Money Market Flows, Just to Name a Few...

via stockcharts.com

*I envision a world where the rigging of the 4Q will not be as salient as the previous 2Q's, but close enough for government work and you will be able to get out of the market while you still have some skin in the game. If you play your stocks right and acquire patience, which is a virtue afterall, you will be sitting pretty in 2010 with enough cash to scoop up what's left from the slide. I no longer believe we will test the March lows anytime soon, but we will come perilously close, just you wait and see.




via ZeroHedge.com
*guess who owes the fed cashola now? YOU STUPID! Thats really your balance sheet.







*Everyone has been running to bonds worldwide. And that tells you what? That no one really believes this stock market rally to continue into 2010. So invest wisely. Which is code for: invest in your mattress.






*better tighten your seat belts, we're in for a bumpy ride!
via TheBigPicture

A LOST DECADE FOR JOBS
By lakshman - December 7th, 2009, 10:55AM Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York City.
Last week’s news of a drop in the unemployment rate to ten percent is a welcome development. It was presaged by earlier strength in reliable leading employment indicators, which suggest that this improving pattern will persist next year. In November employers cut the fewest jobs since the recession began, but how should Americans interpret this news? With unemployment in double digits for the first time since 1983, many still worry about the jobless recovery.
This coming post-recession dip in joblessness is the good news. But, looking ahead to the later phase of the expansion, the post-World War II period shows disturbing cyclical patterns.
The jobless rate usually sees a sizeable drop during the economic recovery – and bigger recessionary spikes in unemployment are typically followed by larger declines during the first year of improving unemployment. So it would be no surprise if, a year after the unemployment rate begins to drop, it falls to the nine percent range.
The real problem is that the rate of decline in joblessness slows during the rest of the economic expansion. The annual postwar pace of decline in unemployment during these periods has been reasonably uniform, the median being 0.5% a year.
If that pattern persists, the U.S. economy needs to keep expanding without interruption until 2020 for unemployment to fall to its pre-recession low. Even to get back to 5%, often considered to be “full employment,” it would take a business cycle upswing lasting about as long as the record-setting 1991-2001 expansion. Should the next recession arrive earlier, as we suspect, it will take much longer. The implications constitute nothing short of a wake-up call for policy makers who promise to get job growth back on track.
Since World War II, there has been a clear easing pattern in the trend rate of economic growth during expansions, culminating in the 2001-07 expansion, which exhibited the slowest trend rate of growth on record – especially in terms of jobs. Ominously, during expansions following the initial year of revival, growth in non-manufacturing employment – now 91% of nonfarm jobs – has been falling in a parabolic fashion since the 1970s. A continuation of this pattern would mean well under a million jobs gained annually during the expansion following the initial jobs revival. If so, official projections that the jobs lost in this recession will be regained in four years are wildly optimistic.
The “great moderation” of business cycles once extolled by many economists, including Chairman Bernanke, is clearly history. Meanwhile, the trend rate of growth is shriveling. In other words, business cycles are back with a vengeance.
In fact, the combination of weak trend growth and the death of the “great moderation” is a recipe for more frequent periods of negative growth, i.e., recessions. Think of Japan over the last two decades, where 1% GDP trend growth made it easy for growth to fall below zero during periods of cyclical volatility, while China – with a 10% GDP growth trend – has not seen a recession in two decades.
In contrast, the conception, popular in some quarters, of an economy now destined to grow smoothly, albeit at a “new normal” anemic pace, is the sort of fantasy typically generated by extrapolative econometric models. In the real world, one never sees such slow and steady growth – especially in the wake of a severe recession featuring massive stimulus that will be difficult to withdraw smoothly.
The real risk is of more frequent recessions repeatedly aborting cyclical downswings in unemployment in coming years. The stark implication is that it will take much longer than a few years – perhaps decades – to get back to the jobless rates we saw only a couple of years ago.
What we have described provides only a historical baseline, rooted in the arithmetic of past cycles, unencumbered by the fallout from the Great Recession. Some consolation comes from the fact that past performance does not dictate destiny, and extrapolation from past patterns is not a reliable forecasting method, especially if the pattern is about to change.
So, it is at least conceivable that either enlightened policy measures, or good luck, or both, will result in a decisive break from these patterns. The silver lining is that even an economy dipping in and out of recessions and keeping joblessness cycling near historical highs is a navigable one for decision makers who keep a closer watch for recessions and recoveries.

HEADLINE NEWS

*these guys are too much aren't they? This bank bailout crisis has cost US taxpayers well over $12T. Start reading all the fine print. Who do you think has been buying all of the bad toxic debt from bondholders out there? YOU STUPID!
Treasury says TARP to cost $200 billion less than expected
The U.S. Treasury had estimated that the Troubled Asset Relief Program would cost taxpayers about $341 billion, but it is saying the cost will be at least $200 billion less. "That improvement is driven by the fact that Treasury's investments to stabilize the system are delivering higher returns than anticipated and that Treasury does not anticipate having to draw upon the full $700 billion in TARP authority," a Treasury official said. Reuters (07 Dec.)

Dubai World debt restructuring a test of sukuk framework
Dubai World's debt-restructuring request is expected to raise questions among investors and issuers regarding Shariah-compliant bonds. "This will mark the first test of the legal framework underpinning sukuk in general, and it could therefore have implications for Islamic fundraising globally," said Fahd Iqbal, an analyst at EFG Hermes, a Middle Eastern investment bank. Bankers are also speculating that the Dubai World situation will delay revival of the Islamic financing market. AsianInvestor.net (07 Dec.)

*how can this be possible? It can't! When these jokers invested at the height of the crisis still had Citigroup at around $7. Even the preferreds, which is likely what SWF bought into, got hammered. So I guess the real story is, uh, we lost our $3B investment but we made back $1.1B so we must be ok right? Thats like you ijiots in mutual funds saying, well, I was down 50% but I made it back since March. NOT! Even though the market has had a near 50% retracement from its March lows, you need to make back 100% in order to break even. Gotta love the magic of numbers eh?
SWFs are well-paid for investing in troubled U.S. banks
Sovereign-wealth funds that stepped up and put capital into shaky U.S. banks during the financial crisis booked some healthy profit on their investment. The government of Kuwait said it made a $1.1 billion profit on its stake in Citigroup, which works out to a 37% annualized return. Funds in Qatar, Singapore and Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, reported similar gains on their investment in foreign financial institutions. The New York Times (06 Dec.)

CRE loans make it difficult for small banks to escape TARP
Regional banks may not be able to escape the Troubled Asset Relief Program as a result of bad commercial real estate loans. "Community and regional banks basically became real estate banks in the past 25 years, and now real estate is on its back," said Jeff Davis, an analyst at FTN Equity Capital Markets Corp. The problems come as big, national banks exit the TARP. Bloomberg (12/7)

*when the VIX is low YOU GO.......
Analysis: Volatility index suggests investor complacency
Investors have gotten complacent, as evidenced by the stock market's recent return to normal levels of volatility, Mark Gongloff writes in a Wall Street Journal commentary. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX index closed to nearly its lowest level in over a year on Friday. "We're going to have a sustained level of volatility going forward," says Milton Balbuena, co-chief investment strategist at Contango Capital Advisors in San Francisco. "Rallies and meltdowns will be part of the process." The Wall Street Journal (12/7)

*we all knew Goldman was lying through their bonus' and Geithner knew it then too, he's just trying to save his arse.
Geithner: Entire financial system at risk at height of crisis
Goldman Sachs executives, including CEO Lloyd Blankfein, said the company did not need the government's aid to survive the financial crisis. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner responded, saying the entire financial system was threatened at the height of the crisis. "The entire U.S. financial system and all the major firms in the country, and even small banks across the country, were at that moment at the middle of a classic run, a classic bank run," Geithner said. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and others have since returned the government's funds with interest. Bloomberg (12/5)

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Some interesting Charts from dshort.com

*of course there is no cause for alarm for Inflation. Since the Fed, with Congress' conspiratorial consent, I might add, made the decision to grease the greedy banking hands of its members by creating an environment of free money with little or no regulatory oversight, a housing mortgage bubble SURPRISE appeared, and WALLAH, poof you're dead! These glad handing scumsucking bloviating schiesters have ruined my country, possibly for all time. How could you think it was okay to have my mothers house rise from $36,000 in 1974 to $340,000 in 2007? Economists should hide their head in shame for the havoc they have wreaked on us all.

Japan, the US, Bubbles and Deflation
December 6, 2009 new update
Here is a series of real (inflation-adjusted) monthly close charts of the Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500 since 1970 with their respective annualized rates of inflation shown below. This series also includes an overlay chart with the two index peaks aligned. The overlay retains Japan's inflation to illustrate a point discussed later in this post.


Bear Turns to Bull?
December 4, 2009 updated each market day
The S&P 500 closed the day up 0.54%, which gives us a weekly gain of 1.7%. The index is 63.5% above the March 9th close, which is 29.3% below the peak in October 2007. Here is a StockCharts.com snapshot showing the relationship of the S&P 500 to its 50-and 200-day simple moving averages.

Good Riddance Jon Corzine: But too bad the only hope is a Fat Boy Pubby who will likely eat us all out of house and home!

*this is so outrageously good I had to post the article in its entirety! Granted, most of these deals were done when that other scheister, MCGREEVEY, was governor, but Corzine was our United States Senator and a buddy buddy collecting a hefty pension from none other than Goldie Sachs. So you do the math. Good riddance to them all. Maybe in four years, after the fat lady has sung her final song, you will elect me to be Guvner!
New Jersey Swap for Unsold Bonds Costs $22,000 a Day
By Dunstan McNichol
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- New Jersey taxpayers are being saddled with a bill of about $657,000 a month from Bank of Montreal for an interest-rate swap approved by state officials and linked to bonds that were never sold.
The 11th-largest U.S. state by population, which is cutting expenses to close a $1 billion budget deficit, will pay Canada’s oldest lender $23.5 million. The sum, about the same as the salaries for 113 teachers over three years, will allow it to avoid a $50 million penalty for canceling the contract, which was tied to planned sales of school-construction bonds.
The interest rate swap, an agreement between borrowers to exchange fixed and variable-rate payments on a set amount of debt, was arranged in 2004 to protect taxpayers against rising borrowing costs. The strategy backfired after officials decided against issuing the securities.
“This is a classic case of a strategic error,” said Robert Brooks, a finance professor at the University of Alabama- Tuscaloosa and author of a book on derivatives. “It’s arrogant to believe that you have such a command of the future that you know with certainty what is going to happen.”
The payments, which work out to $21,892 a day for three years, show how elected and appointed officials failed taxpayers by agreeing to financial strategies they didn’t fully understand. New Jersey spent $21.3 million in 2008 to exit three contracts signed when James Florio and James McGreevey were governors. The state’s transportation trust fund is giving almost $1 million a month to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partnership in an agreement linked to bonds that were redeemed.

Penalties and Losses
New Jersey isn’t alone. Borrowers from Massachusetts to California are struggling with billions of dollars in swap penalties and losses at the same time that budget deficits expand to an estimated $350 billion in 2010 and 2011, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
The derivatives, mostly interest-rate swaps used to exchange fixed payments for variable rates, have grown to as much as $300 billion annually, the Alexandria, Virginia-based Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board said in an April report, citing information from market participants.
Derivatives have created “unprecedented financial stress” for some of the 500 municipal issuers that sold variable-rate debt and purchased swaps from banks to lock in borrowing costs, according to an October report by Moody’s Investors Service. The biggest users of the arrangements are Pennsylvania, California, Texas and Tennessee.

Investigations
The U.S. Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating whether Wall Street banks conspired with brokers to rig bids on the contracts.
Jefferson County, Alabama, is on the edge of bankruptcy mostly because of a $3 billion sewer project in which fixed-rate bonds were refinanced into floating-rate securities hedged with interest-rate swaps. Larry Langford, the former Democratic mayor of Birmingham, was convicted of federal corruption charges Oct. 29 for accepting bribes in exchange for giving underwriting contracts to a banker friend while he was county commission president.
New Jersey’s 2004 school-bond swap with Bank of Montreal was linked to a $250 million bond originally scheduled to be sold in 2007. The so-called forward-starting agreement was one of 15 such contracts the state set up to help finance construction.

Issue Deferred
The issue was deferred to 2009 because the school program wasn’t borrowing fast enough to use swaps coming due in 2007, according to treasury spokesman Tom Bell.
Under its contract, New Jersey agreed to pay the bank a fixed rate of about 4.6 percent, or $967,000 a month, on the $250 million principal. In return, it would receive unspecified variable-rate payments based on a percentage of the one-month London interbank offered rate, according to Treasury Department spokesman Tom Vincz.
The one-month rate was 0.23 percent on Dec. 3, down from 1.9 percent when the Bank of Montreal swap was set up, according to the British Bankers Association One-Month Libor U.S. Dollar Index. Libor is a benchmark for the cost of loans between banks.
In pushing the swap off to 2009, New Jersey agreed to a 9 basis-point reduction in its fixed interest rate and the bank changed the floating-rate formula to a lower percentage of Libor. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Revamped Agreement
When the revamped agreement took effect on Nov. 1, the state faced payments of $833,000 a month, Vincz said in an e- mail. Treasury officials allowed the bank to suspend floating- rate payments while lowering New Jersey’s fixed-rate cost to 3.1 percent, or $656,770 monthly, through November 2012.
The cost would cover the $23.6 million price of a typical elementary school, according to New Jersey Schools Development Authority reports. It would also pay 113 teachers’ salaries for three years, based on data reported by the state Teachers Pension and Annuity Fund.
“It is obscene,” New Jersey Governor-elect Christopher Christie said at a Nov. 16 news conference in Trenton, referring to financial strategies such as swaps pursued largely during McGreevey’s term from 2001 to 2004. “It is extraordinary to me that someone could do that much damage in less than three years.”

McGreevey Contacted
McGreevey, who resigned in 2004 after saying he was gay, didn’t respond to phone messages left at his home and the office of his partner, Mark O’Donnell, at real-estate developer Kushner Cos. in New York City. The former governor also didn’t return a message left at the Episcopal All Saints Parish in Hoboken, New Jersey, where he serves as an assistant while seeking a Master of Divinity degree at Manhattan’s General Theological Seminary.
John McCormac, Christie’s transition team economic development and growth adviser who served as state treasurer when most of New Jersey’s swaps were arranged, hung up when asked about them on Nov. 11.
“OK, thanks for calling,” McCormac, mayor of Woodbridge Township, said before disconnecting.
New Jersey refinanced $3.4 billion of debt tied to derivatives last year, according to a report from the state Treasury Department’s Office of Public Finance.
The renegotiated swap lets New Jersey avoid a termination fee, estimated at $50 million in an Oct. 31 state report. It will allow the original swap to be reinstated if officials want to sell school-construction bonds in 2012, Vincz said in the Nov. 16 e-mail.

Diligent Work
“We are working diligently to manage and reduce the cost of the swap portfolio this administration inherited,” he said. “This temporary solution limits swap costs for a three-year period, after which time the state will retain the option of applying the original terms with a future borrowing as a hedge against rising interest rates.”
“We are not in a position to comment, out of an obligation of confidentiality to the client,” Kim Hanson, a spokeswoman for Bank of Montreal, said in a phone interview.
Peter Nissen, a financial adviser in Marlboro, New Jersey, who worked on the swap while at Public Financial Management, the state’s Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-based adviser, declined to comment.
Marty Margolis, managing director at PFM, said in a phone interview that Nissen worked independently on the contract and hasn’t been associated with the company for more than two years.
“That swap was done by someone who hasn’t worked for the company for several years,” Margolis said. “I know nothing about it.”

Corzine Term
Except for two deals to stem losses from existing derivative contracts, New Jersey has entered into no new swaps since Governor Jon Corzine, the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, took office in 2006, according to Vincz. Christie, a former U.S. prosecutor, defeated Corzine last month and is to be sworn in Jan. 19.
New Jersey paid $21.3 million last year to end three derivative contracts connected to bonds for business-incentive grants, the River Line Light Rail project from Trenton to Camden and the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority. On Nov. 18, the Delaware River Port Authority, a bistate agency that runs toll bridges and a rail line to Pennsylvania, agreed to give Zurich-based UBS AG $111 million if the authority can’t issue variable-rate debt to make use of an existing swap by February.
The state Transportation Trust Fund Authority is paying almost $1 million monthly to Goldman Sachs Mitsui Marine Derivative Products LP, a partnership of the New York-based bank and Japan’s Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings Inc., under a swap agreement made during McGreevey’s administration in 2003. The derivatives were linked to $345 million in auction-rate bonds sold to finance road and rail projects.

Fixed-Rate Debt
While New Jersey replaced the debt with fixed-rate securities in 2008, the derivative payments aren’t scheduled to expire until 2019. The state plans to sell $150 million in variable-rate bonds on Dec. 7 to make use of part of the swap.
The Transportation Trust Fund board will meet Dec. 8 to authorize about $225 million in variable-rate demand notes, said Nancy Feldman, director of the state’s Office of Public Finance in Trenton. That will raise cash for highway projects through January, and will make use of the balance of the Goldman Sachs swap, she said in an interview today.
“We’re trying to make sure they have funds to continue construction,” Feldman said.
The school construction program, which is authorized to borrow $4.1 billion through 2013, has sufficient cash “for a couple of more months,” Feldman said.

‘Aggressive’ Management
The state treasury “should continue to aggressively manage the termination, conversion and management of swaps that this administration inherited, while dealing with the realities of the most difficult credit conditions in history,” Corzine’s former spokesman, Steve Sigmund, said in an e-mail on Oct. 22.
New Jersey passed up borrowing costs of 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent when it opted to issue variable-rate bonds tied to swaps during McGreevey’s tenure, a 2008 state analysis shows. The net interest cost on the debt was about 4 percent while the original derivative agreements were in effect, according to the report.
The yield on 25-year fixed-rate revenue bonds is now 4.98 percent, up from a yearly low of 4.69 percent in early October, according to a Bond Buyer Index.
Derivatives can save taxpayers money over longer periods if they’re managed properly, said Peter Shapiro, managing director of Swap Financial Group LLC, in South Orange, New Jersey, an adviser to companies and governments.
“Will municipal officers ever take for granted that floating-rate bonds will be dull, boring and predictable means of finance?” he said in a phone interview. “No, and they probably never should have.”

Friday, December 4, 2009

HEADLINE NEWS

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2009
The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses
had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction,
manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care
added jobs. BLS.gov

Strong Black Friday not enough to lift November sales
U.S. retail chains reported a lower sales volume for November, despite a strong turnout on Black Friday. Several popular stores had results that fell short of analysts' forecasts. "It was a month that disappointed us and, I think, the industry," said Michael Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers. Same-store sales dropped 0.3% in November compared with the same month last year, the trade group said. The Washington Post (04 Dec.)

U.S. service sector posts surprise decline in November
Coming after two consecutive months of modest improvement, the U.S. service sector contracted in November, catching analysts off guard. The Institute for Supply Management's service index fell from 50.6 in October to 48.7 last month. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting additional tepid improvement, with the index edging up to 51.1. The Business Insider (03 Dec.)

China is in danger of distorting economy, experts say
Economists warned that China has put too much emphasis on stimulating GDP growth and risks distorting its economic structure. "Heavy government-driven investment will probably create excessive capacity and bad loans as witnessed in the 1990s," said Liu Jinhe, chief researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. The State Information Center said the government should not expand its stimulus efforts. "Inflation is not an issue in the short term, but the government should not further its progressive monetary and fiscal policies," the think tank said. China Daily (Beijing) (04 Dec.)

Japanese manufacturers' capital spending plummets 40.7% in Q3
A 40.7% decline in capital spending by Japan's manufacturers in the third quarter compared with the same period last year set a record, the Finance Ministry said. It marked the fifth consecutive quarter of falling capital investment, well exceeding the second quarter's decline of 32%. The biggest drop was among automakers and other firms in the transportation-equipment category, which cut spending by 59.7% The Japan Times(03 Dec.)

BoE to buy, sell corporate bonds to boost liquidity
The Bank of England said in a recently published consultation document that it plans to sell some of the assets it acquired through its bond-buying program and buy other corporate bonds to bolster liquidity in the market. The central bank noted, however, that the move does not signal the start to its quantitative-easing exit strategy. "The proposals [would] have no implications for the accomplishment of the wider asset-purchase program being undertaken in line with the Monetary Policy Committee's decisions," according to the consultation document. The Times (London) (04 Dec.)

House Democrats want TARP money for jobs initiative
Democratic leaders in the House are preparing to push for a job-creation program to be funded with money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, said U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. She said the House will try to get the measure passed this year. "If we can get something passed this year, it will be so that we can be ready for the construction season starting in the spring," Pelosi said. She said she wants to see some TARP money used to help small businesses hire and to assist local governments with employing firefighters, police officers and teachers. Bloomberg (03 Dec.)

Obama promises "immediate" action to spur hiring
U.S. President Barack Obama said some proposals to boost hiring that were brought up at his jobs summit will receive "immediate" action and could lead to legislation. Obama said tax credits to stimulate hiring are "worthy of further consideration." He said he is receptive to financial assistance to state governments. "As tough as this financial crisis and recession has been on the federal budget, it has in some cases been worse on state and local budgets," Obama said. Reuters (03 Dec.)

Consumer advocates are leery of Comcast's deal for NBC Universal
A proposal to combine entertainment giant NBC Universal with Comcast, the biggest broadband and cable company in the U.S., is drawing a demand from consumer advocates for regulators to take a close look. Sen. Herb Kohl, D-Wis., chairman of the Senate's Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Subcommittee, said he will call a hearing to help consumers find out how the deal would affect their access to diverse information and programming. USA TODAY (04 Dec.)

Rivals maneuver for bankrupt mall owner, sources say
Brookfield Asset Management, one of Canada's biggest commercial-property owners, and Simon Property Group, the largest mall owner in the U.S., have been buying the debt of bankrupt General Growth Properties, sources said. Brookfield has accumulated nearly $1 billion in unsecured debt, possibly preparing a bid to acquire some or all of General Growth's portfolio, the sources said. Meanwhile, Simon reportedly hired legal and financial advisers to assist in forming a bid. The Wall Street Journal (04 Dec.)

Sen. Reid puts health care bill ahead of re-election fight
Putting aside what could be a fierce election to stay in office, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., assumed without reservation full responsibility for getting U.S. President Barack Obama's health care overhaul through the Senate. Reid asked Obama to put his oratory and personal charm to work as the point man for the health care campaign months ago. When that did not happen, Reid picked up the banner and never looked back. He is known as a legislator who plays his cards close to the chest when confronted with a challenge. The Washington Post (04 Dec.)

Case could prompt Congress to reshape Sarbanes-Oxley
Supreme Court justices will hear a case next week that challenges the creation of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, a central tenet of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act. An accounting firm and a small-government advocacy organization argue that the board does not have the presidential control required by the Constitution. If the court rules against the board, a battle might build in Congress regarding other aspects of Sarbanes-Oxley. Bloomberg (12/4)

Flash-order ban likely for stock exchanges, unclear for option market
Lawmakers and regulators have been scrutinizing flash orders, but the bulk of the concern is with stock exchanges. The Securities and Exchange Commission likely will ban such flash orders, but whether it will put similar restrictions on the options market is unclear. A ban on flash orders in the options market could trigger upheaval, market participants said. The Wall Street Journal (12/4)

Bernanke: Financial crisis would have been worse without Fed
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was met with a mix of harsh criticism and low-key support as he defended his record at the central bank before the Senate banking committee. "We played a central role in efforts to quell financial turmoil," Bernanke said. "The outcome could have been markedly worse." Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said he expects a majority of the committee to vote in favor of Bernanke's confirmation for another term. Reuters (12/3)

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Corporate Stock Buybacks and the Pension Buying of Corporate Bonds: What will they think of next? Bankruptcy that's what!

*Rosie posts an interesting article this morning on, among many other things, how pension funds are getting what I would deem suspicious about the over inflated world stock markets and finding a safer bet in corporate bonds. Personally I think that both are a mistake considering the year of default is likely in 2010 and 2011, but what do I know? Remember, bonds have also had a huge run up over this past year and we all know that pension fund managers have been just as stupid as other asset managers, David Swenson from Yale comes to mind (losses above 25%). The moral of the story is: When all others are buying SOMETHING, whether its stocks, bonds or underwear, you SELL!
go here to read full article

Pensions Eliminating Stocks Add $40 Billion to Corporate Bonds Share Business
J.C. Penney Co., the third-largest U.S. department-store chain, is dumping stocks from its retirement plans and gradually boosting bonds to 100 percent of investments from 20 percent as federal requirements to plug pension gaps take effect.
The Plano, Texas-based retailer promised to “eliminate” uncertainty for shareholders caused by underfunded pensions, and will shift some of the money into investment-grade bonds, increasing fixed-income assets to the highest level in the plan’s history, J.C. Penney spokeswoman Darcie Brossart said.
J.C. Penney has plenty of company. General Motors Co. and Goodrich Corp. have also been buying debt as the U.S. pushes retirement pools to cut riskier assets after losses jeopardized some funds. JPMorgan Chase & Co. says fixed-income holdings will rise 10 percent in the next few years, or about $40 billion of corporate debt. The new money is flowing into investment-grade bonds, which may be overheating after returning 21 percent this year, according to Cabot Money Management.
“We’re seeing more plans leaning toward corporate bonds than has been the case historically,” said Mark Ruloff, the director of asset allocation at Arlington, Virginia-based consulting firm Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc., which surveyed funds in August on their strategies. “It’s adding a new slate of buyers that weren’t in the market before.”
Pension funds are increasing allocations of investment- grade debt to the highest level since the 1970s, when federal rules created a “bias” toward equities, as the U.S. mandates that plans set targets to fully fund worker obligations, Ruloff said.
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) --

HEADLINE NEWS

Japan's Nikkei jumps 3.8% to lead Asian markets' gains
Shares of Japanese exporters climbed Thursday as concern eased about the strong yen. Japan's Nikkei 225 soared 3.8%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.3% and South Korea's Kospi Composite added 1.5%. New Zealand's NZX 50 and Taiwan's Taiex inched up 0.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.2%. China's Shanghai Composite slid 0.2%, while India's Sensex was up 0.9% and Singapore's Straits Times had added 0.2% in late trading. The Wall Street Journal (03 Dec.)

Fed is worried by real estate, cheered by holiday sales
The economy is "modestly" improving in most of the U.S., but falling home prices and a deepening crisis in commercial real estate present obstacles to any robust recovery, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book. The report states that consumer spending has increased moderately and used-car sales are doing well. The job market continues to be a problem, "with further layoffs, sluggish hiring and high levels of unemployment." The Washington Post (03 Dec.)

World still faces risk of double-dip recession, U.N. says
The world's economy faces the threat of a double-dip recession if governments shut down their stimulus programs too soon, the United Nations said in its annual report on economic prospects. The recovery is "far from robust," according to the report. The U.N. projected a 2.4% expansion for the global economy in 2010 if stimulus spending continues. Growth of 2.1% was forecast for the U.S. economy, significantly higher than the 1.5% increase projected by the International Monetary Fund. Reuters (02 Dec.)

Bank of America poised to repay $45 billion in state aid
Ken Lewis, Bank of America's outgoing CEO, said repayment of taxpayer funds the bank received during the financial crisis is representative of the company's strength. "It is a milestone indicating that public policy has succeeded in helping our industry and the economy begin to recover," Lewis said. "As banks replace Treasury investments with private capital, confidence in the financial system increases, taxpayers are made whole and government's unprecedented involvement in the private sector lessens," a Treasury representative said. The Washington Post (12/3)

*Too much risk you say? A Bernanke reappointment would make sure of it!
Analysis: Debt market might be rewarding risk too muchA spectacular performance of the debt market during the past 12 months might be setting up bonds for a reversal in the near future. High-yield debt has recently outperformed returns from the 1992 and 2003 debt rebounds by a huge margin. Some of the most extreme abuses of the bubble-era debt market are back. Covenant-light loans, the commercial equivalent of subprime home mortgages, are popping up. The bond market is again embracing "payment-in-kind" securities, which allow the issuance of debt to cover debt service. Barron's (subscription required) (02 Dec.)

*this should mean a decline in gas prices even further, righhhhht?
Technology triggers land rush for U.S. natural gas
Energy companies are scrambling to negotiate deals that would allow them to drill for natural gas in areas written off in the past. Technology has drastically reduced the cost of extracting gas bound up in shale rock, making huge reserves accessible and profitable for gas operators for the first time. "The United States is sitting on over 100 years of gas supply at the current rates of consumption," said BP CEO Tony Hayward. The Washington Post (03 Dec.)

*we are all wondering about GE's future and furthermore, WHY DOES IMMELT STILL HAVE A JOB?
Investors ask about GE's next act after NBC Universal sale
General Electric investors said they want to hear what CEO Jeffrey Immelt has in mind for the company's future after the widely anticipated sale of its 51% stake in NBC Universal to Comcast. For 2008, NBC Universal accounted for 9.3% of GE's revenue and 12% of its operating profit, according to Bloomberg data. Bloomberg (03 Dec.)

U.N. predicts China's economy will grow 8.8% in 2010
China's economic expansion will not return to the level enjoyed before the financial crisis, but it will reach 8.8% next year, the United Nations said in a report on the world economy. Investors in most emerging economies, along with those in developed countries, recoiled from the market when the credit crunch hit, but China is "bucking the trend," the U.N. said. Asia's developing economies will lead the world with the strongest growth next year, according to the report. Xinhuanet.com (China) (03 Dec.)

*so China looking more and more like US everyday. And you don't really believe that this is all there is do you?
China's state-owned firms hit with $1.67B derivatives loss
By the end of October, businesses owned by the Chinese government had run up losses totaling $1.67 billion on financial derivatives, said the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. The 68 companies engaged in trading in financial derivatives valued at $18.3 billion, the commission said. China Daily (Beijing) (03 Dec.)

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

AFTERNOON TIDBITS

via econompicdata.com

Bloomberg reports:
Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 169,000 jobs in November, according to a private report based on payroll data.
The drop, the smallest since July 2008, compares with a revised 195,000 decline the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. The figures were forecast to show a decline of 150,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 32 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The report signals the job market is still deteriorating and unemployment will probably climb further even as the economy is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. After overestimating payroll losses by 103,000 on average in the five months to September, ADP’s initial estimate for October was in line with the government’s payroll figures.
“Our economy is still a long way from adding jobs,” Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. “Labor markets remain the one area where significant improvement in economic conditions has yet to manifest.”
ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies.

via thebigpicture



from chartsedge.com

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

HEADLINE NEWS

Asian markets rise, led by Japanese exporters
Shares for Japan's exporters led advancement in Asian-Pacific markets Tuesday. After Japan's Nikkei 225 closed with a 2.4% gain, the central bank announced a plan to inject liquidity into the financial system to counter a soaring yen and deflationary pressure. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi Composite and Taiwan's Taiex climbed 0.9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, China's Shanghai Composite and India's Sensex rose 1.3%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%, and Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 1.4%. The Wall Street Journal (01 Dec.)

Dubai rejects assumption it is responsible for Dubai World debt
As creditors assumed that Dubai, United Arab Emirates, would guarantee the debt of Dubai World, the emirate rejected the idea. "Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies," said Abdulrahman al-Saleh, director general of the Department of Finance in Dubai. "They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct." Dubai World said it is looking at a $26 billion debt restructuring, which would affect its property firms the most. The Wall Street Journal (30 Nov.)

Dubai scare reveals world's shaky recovery:
The financial problems of government-owned Dubai World show the world has not completely emerged from crisis. Some experts said the company's request for a six-month debt standstill is nothing more than another real estate bust. "I don't see what the big deal is," wrote Willem Buiter, an economist at the London School of Economics and Political Science. But news of the request sent currency traders scrambling for the security of the U.S. dollar, while share prices in Asia and the U.S. took hits. TIME (30 Nov.)

Treasury might penalize lenders that don't help curb foreclosures
The U.S. Treasury said it might sanction or penalize lenders that accepted state aid if they do not do enough to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. The move is the latest in the Obama administration's effort to reduce the foreclosure rate. Some mortgage servicers also are being required to speed up their decision process for altering mortgage terms. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup were cited as among the best performers in the Making Home Affordable program. The Washington Post (01 Dec.)

*and you think Dubai's default is big. Wait till US municipalities start defaulting due to wall street's pillaging.
Municipal bond market heads toward $400 billion year
Preliminary data from Thomson Reuters show that the municipal bond market had its third-most-active November in history as local governments in the U.S. floated $37.76 billion in debt, a 46.7% increase compared with the same month last year. This year, municipalities have sold $373 billion in bonds. For the third time, the municipal bond market could surpass the $400 billion mark for annual sales, depending on December's supply. The Bond Buyer (free content) (01 Dec.)

*Canada's recession may be over (not likely really) but they are so far from recovery they don't even know it. Loonies alright!
Canada struggles out of recession with 0.4% growth in Q3
Statistics Canada gave the official word that the country emerged from recession during the third quarter, but the 0.4% GDP expansion fell short of what experts were expecting. The growth was driven mostly by a jump in imports, at an annual rate of 36%, suggesting considerable vitality on the part of Canada's consumers. The Globe and Mail (Toronto) (01 Dec.)

*India and you, perfect together. India is the place to invest. They have restructured consumer debt and forced counterparties to rescind their ridiculous derivative contracts. We should all take a lesson from their playbook.
India's GDP posts 7.9% expansion in Q3
Marking its strongest growth in six quarters, India's economy expanded 7.9% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, the statistics bureau said. Manufacturing grew 9.2%, the strongest showing since June 2007. Bloomberg (30 Nov.)

World Bank blacklists Siemens' Russian unit for fraud, corruption
After discovering fraud and corruption by a Russian subsidiary of Siemens, the World Bank barred the unit from bidding on its projects for four years. The World Bank said it uncovered violations in a Moscow transportation project it financed. Siemens admitted the misconduct and agreed to contribute $100 million during the next 15 years to fight fraud and corruption worldwide. Reuters (30 Nov.)

Monday, November 30, 2009

MORNING BRIEFS

Asian markets rally after sharp sell-off last week
Financial stocks led a rally in Asia's share markets Monday as the United Arab Emirates' central bank reassured investors that it will support the banking industry. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.9%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 2.8% and South Korea's Kospi Composite advanced 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 3.3%, China's Shanghai Composite climbed 3.2% and New Zealand's NZX 50 added 1%. Taiwan's Taiex went up 1.2%, while Singapore's Straits Times Index bucked the trend to fall 0.8%. The Wall Street Journal (30 Nov.)

*shoppers have nothing better to do than to go to the malls on Thanksgiving weekend because their TV has been repossessed. But they still have no cash to buy overpriced junk. I say buyers revolt, STOP SPENDING until banks START LENDING and reduce your credit card interest.

Thanksgiving weekend brings more shoppers, less spending

Holiday shoppers filled the stores and visited retailers' Web sites during the Black Friday weekend in the U.S., but they spent about 8% less per person than last year, the National Retail Federation said. The data dashed hopes of a strong rebound for the full holiday-shopping season. "Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to open their wallets for a bargain," said Tracy Mullin, CEO of the National Retail Federation. Retailers "know they have their work cut out for them to keep people coming back through Christmas," Mullin said. Los Angeles Times (30 Nov.)

*all weekend long I am reading about the sugar coated Dubai on the mend to a mega powerhouse story. Get real people. This time next year you will see Dubai center city looking like Detroits recent stadium sale: built in 1975 for $50 Million dollars and sold in 2009 for $500,000. YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP!
UAE officials try to counter concern regarding Dubai World
The United Arab Emirates' central bank said it "stands behind" the country's banks as they face losses from a possible default by Dubai World. The central bank eased credit to banks with an emergency liquidity facility and aimed to curtail potential capital flight. "This is a timely pre-emptive move from the central bank," said Goldman Sachs economist Ahmet Akarli. Bloomberg (30 Nov.)

*gee, are Helicopter Ben and Timmy surprised yet?
Analysis: $1 trillion in U.S. bank reserves raise concern
U.S. bank reserves exceed the minimum required by the Federal Reserve by $1 trillion, raising questions and concern about inflation and banks' willingness to lend. Banks could activate the funds to support new loans, which could spur demand and inflation. Or the excessive reserves could indicate that bankers remain nervous about making new loans and would rather hang onto the funds. "If they don't make a loan, they can't make a bad one," said Pennsylvania State University associate professor John Mason. Others said the excess is to be expected. The Wall Street Journal (30 Nov.)

Mortgage lenders to face more pressure from White House
Responding to a growing wave of delinquencies and foreclosures, the White House is getting ready to pressure mortgage lenders to permanently cut payments for a significant number of homeowners. A congressional oversight group reported that fewer than 2,000 of the 500,000 loan modifications processed under the U.S. government's Making Home Affordable program were made permanent. "The banks are not doing a good enough job," said Michael Barr, the Treasury's assistant secretary for financial institutions. "Some firms ought to be embarrassed, and they will be." The New York Times (28 Nov.)

*what do economists know anyway? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
Economists: U.S. growth not enough to cut unemployment
If economists are correct, the U.S. will end this week with more bad news about unemployment. Analysts expect the Labor Department's report to show that 100,000 jobs disappeared in November. "The recent economic data have been consistent with our view that the economy is recovering, but it is at a distinctly subpar pace," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote to clients. "Growth looks too sluggish to lower the 10% unemployment to a meaningful degree any time soon." MarketWatch (29 Nov.)

*poor Helicopter Ben. I guess since the stock market has gone up to the proverbial sky, his reappointment doesn't look all that necessary. Maybe there is a God after all! How about picking Janet Yellen instead Mr. President? Maybe a woman can finally add the finishing touches on whats right with my country's finances.
Sen. Sanders plans to vote against Bernanke's reappointment
As the recession drags on, it looks as though Senate confirmation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for an additional term will be anything but smooth. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said he will oppose Bernanke's reappointment. He said Bernanke "is part of the problem" faced by the U.S. economy. A hearing is scheduled Thursday regarding the confirmation. The Washington Post/The Associated Press (29 Nov.)

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Dubai on the Verge of Collapse? Who Will be Next?

*Not sure how you could not have seen this coming. Consider the fact that the Middle EEast had gone on the same DEBIT/DEBT shopping spree as the rest of us over the past five years and one can imagine that emerging markets all across the world will suffer the same fate as the US and Europe. Can it happen here? Helicopter Ben can print all of the dollars in the world and California will still be broke. If I consider the salient fact that CA is the world's 8th largest economy, then YES, it can happen here.
Dubai World News Hits Confidence
DUBAI -- Persian Gulf bonds tumbled and the cost of insuring against default across the region jumped Thursday, a day after the government of Dubai said it would ask to postpone debt of its corporate flagship Dubai World.
Credit agencies late Wednesday cut ratings of Dubai debt, as investors and analysts reassessed the region's willingness to bail out troubled borrowers.
Dubai's action also shook global markets. Stocks in London fell Thursday, with analysts blaming worry over international exposure to Dubai debt. Analysts and bankers, however, downplayed the notion of significant exposure by any one institution or any systemic risk from
More

Dubai Government Shock May Not Be Last
DP World Not Part of Restructuring
European Banks Seen Exposed to Dubai World

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

MORNING BRIEFS

Should be a very slow day. All the big guy have already left town and the market closes at 1PM.

CapitaMalls makes strong debut as Asian markets advance
CapitaMalls Asia raised 2.8 billion Singaporean dollars, making it the largest initial public offering in the country since 1993. Singapore's Straits Times Index, South Korea's Kospi Composite and New Zealand's NZX 50 gained 0.3%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.4%, Taiwan's Taiex added 0.5% and China's Shanghai Composite jumped 2.1%. The Wall Street Journal (25 Nov.)

*they have gotten all of my money in more ways than one and are using it to make billions speculating in bonds and stocks and paying themselves huge bonus'. Nothing has changed at all.
U.S. bank lending posts biggest decline in 25 years
Banks in the U.S. cut back the amount of money loaned to customers by $210.4 billion in the third quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said. The 2.8% reduction marks the sharpest drop since at least 1984. The biggest banks, which received billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts, accounted for a disproportionately large part of the drop. "We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers," said Sheila Bair, the FDIC's chairwoman. The Washington Post (25 Nov.)

IMF obtains $600 billion credit line for loans during crises
The International Monetary Fund will be ready to respond with loans during future financial crises because of a $600 billion line of credit that is coming from as many as 13 countries, which are supporting the IMF's New Arrangements to Borrow program. Emerging nations, including Brazil, Russia, China and India, are among the contributors. The money comes on top of as much as $500 billion pledged by the Group of 20 nations. Bloomberg (25 Nov.)

After lending spree, China's banks gear up to raise capital
BNP Paribas estimated that China's 11 biggest listed banks will need to raise $43 billion or more to meet regulatory requirements after a period of unprecedented lending. Regulators in China have warned that they will sanction banks that do not meet capital-adequacy requirements, prompting several banks to prepare plans for fundraising. Regulators are "definitely aware of potential asset-quality issues and ... pushing for higher capital-adequacy requirements to offset deterioration in asset quality," said BNP Paribas analyst Dorris Chen. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (24 Nov.)

Citi mortgage chief says more principal forgiveness needed
Sanjiv Das, president and CEO of CitiMortgage, a division of Citigroup, said more principal forgiveness was necessary to help homeowners as unemployment continues to increase. In the third quarter, Citigroup helped 130,000 borrowers avoid potential foreclosure. Citigroup issues quarterly reports on its efforts to help homeowners. The Wall Street Journal (11/24)

*oh really?
Fed officials say rate cuts might be fueling speculation
Source: CNBC
Minutes of the Nov. 3 and 4 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show that Federal Reserve officials are concerned that keeping interest rates low might be fueling "excessive risk-taking" or an "unanchoring of inflation expectations." Central bankers also noted that further depreciation of the dollar might "put significant upward pressure on inflation," which "would bear close watching." Bloomberg (11/25)

Treasury has not recalculated stimulus-bond costs
Build America Bonds, which were created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, have driven private and public investment, according to the Treasury Department. But Alan Krueger, the Treasury's assistant secretary for economic policy, said the costs of the bonds for taxpayers had not been recalculated since initial projections. "It's not an easy thing to calculate," he said. "There's a lot of parts that are relevant to it." The Bond Buyer (free content) (11/25)

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

AFTERNOON TIDBITS

FOMC Minutes
The summary is that things are slowly getting better economically but unemployment will continue to be a drag for years to come. Yes, YEARS, to come. And I don't buy for one second that things are slowly getting better. Go to a mall and see for yourself. So after listening to David Rosenberg's near depression take on our economy, is it any wonder? Should you be surprised the US stcok market and the world markets for that matter, have not plunged into abyss oblivion? Not really when you take into consideration that PPT has decided to prop it up no matter how bad the news. But they can't do it forever. With GDP less than they all expected and consumers having no real job prospects with a decent wage to pay for the propped up prices from gas to housing to food based on fed policy, you all better get ready to start invading those 201Ks and IRAs. The future seems dim monetarily but at least we are all in the boat together.



from econompicdata.com
Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% annual rate July through September after falling by 0.7% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported. A month ago, the department first estimated that GDP rose by an annual 3.5% in the third quarter.


from thebigpicture
The latest Case Shiller Index is out, and it fell 8.9% year over year, but rose a modest 0.3% for the month. The Home Price Index improved in Q3 of 2009 — its 2nd consecutive quarterly increase. Prices declined 8.9% in the quarter versus Q3 2008.
Prior Quarterly falls were worse, with the index falling 14.7% Q2 ‘09, and 19.0% in Q1. The month-to-month data improved, albeit slightly, for the 5th consecutive month.
Other data points worth noting:

• 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their fifth consecutive monthly increase with September’s report.

• Nationally, the Composite rose by 3.1% in both Q2 & Q3 2009.

• Average home prices in Q3 2009 are at similar levels to Q3 2003 — 6 years earlier;

• Los Angeles, New York and Washington values are 70-80% above their 2000 averages;

• Detroit is still at only 73% of its 2000 value;

• Prices in Las Vegas (the most depressed market) have declined for 37 consecutive months; Peak-to-trough, Vegas is down -55.4%.


David Rosenberg on US Near Depression














BDI continues to start its decline
24 November 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -83 4340
Rates

MORNING BRIEFS

Asian markets drop as China warns banks about capital position
Japan's Nikkei 225, which was closed for a holiday Monday, fell 1% on Tuesday as shares of Japan Airlines slid because of investor concerns about the carrier's restructuring. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gave up 0.7%, South Korea's Kospi Composite dropped 0.8% and China's Shanghai Composite plunged 3.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 1.5%, Taiwan's Taiex added 0.4% and Singapore's Straits Times Index slipped 0.3%. The Wall Street Journal (24 Nov.)

Nearly a quarter of U.S. homeowners are "underwater"
About 23% of U.S. homes have a higher mortgage balance than the property is worth, according to First American CoreLogic. The nearly 10.7 million households with negative equity present a huge obstacle to residential-housing recovery. Homeowners with an "underwater" mortgage are more likely to allow their property to go into foreclosure. The Wall Street Journal (24 Nov.)

IMF says banks have yet to reveal full losses from crisis
At the Confederation of British Industry's conference, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said financial institutions have more losses to reveal. "It is our view we are still in the situation where a lot of losses haven't been disclosed," Strauss-Kahn said. "How much is a difficult assessment, but let's say something which is close to half of it." Strauss-Kahn also discussed banks' capital requirements, regulatory proposals and exit strategies. Bloomberg (23 Nov.)

Attention turns to banks' mountain of maturing debt
Banks are starting to focus on their trillions of dollars in debt that will mature during the next couple of years. Some might be forced to refinance that debt at significantly higher borrowing costs. During the credit-market boom, banks took advantage of inexpensive borrowing costs. Then, when the financial crisis hit, government guarantees propped them up and allowed them to continue selling debt. Maturities on the new debt, however, are much shorter. The Wall Street Journal (24 Nov.)

Asset managers gear up for tougher investment climate
The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy has made it easier for fixed-income buyers to make money during the past year. While the Fed is not expected to quickly tighten policy, asset managers are expecting the climate to become much tougher because markets may have peaked. Portfolio managers are watching the market of U.S. Treasuries as a possible trouble spot because it sets benchmark yields for borrowing. The Wall Street Journal (23 Nov.)

Monday, November 23, 2009

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down Very Slightly

-1.08 in October from -1.01 in September.
Hummm. Very slightly? I'd say more than slightly myself, but what do I know?
Go here for full report.

And just FYI
23 November 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -84 4423
Rates

SNL Video on Obama's Trip to China: A Little Crude, but Hysterical

Dimon as New Treasury Secretary? Have You All Lost Your Minds? Tap Meredith Whitney Instead?

*Has anyone taken a good luck at the SIZE of JP Morgan Chase lately? Have all of you policy makers (and why am I surprised at their ever shortsightedness?) forgotten that the majority of the financial crisis woes were a direct result of banks being TOO BIG TO FAIL? How was it that Stan O'Neal, remember him?, never knew what his minions at Merrill Lynch were up to in their CDO and CDS departments because he wasn't pating attention to his risk department because his bank was too big for even him, master of the universe, to keep a watchful eye. Well Jamie Dimon is no different and if you think his bank has done a better job of weathering this financial storm, you are naive. He has just done a better job at hiding the ball. And why wouldn't he? By the time everyone finds out how much CMBS exposure his bank really has, and how much his CDS department is starting to lose on the rising spreads, then it will be too late, he will already be Treasury Sec'y because lord knows, we all need a savior and RIGHT NOW! Poor Obama, he's so easily led into the tool shed. However, If he were to select Whitney, now that would not only bring someone with better dress sense than Geithner and his ill fitting ties, (and lets face it, aren't we all sick of looking at unattractive banker men?) but a looker and a smarty financial pants all in the same gorgeous body! Then maybe Obama could be vindicated. It pays to dream people.

Jamie Dimon seen as good fit for Treasury
By MARK DeCAMBRE
As support for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wanes on Capitol Hill amid frustration with the Obama administration's handling of the economy, JPMorgan Chase
Sources tell The Post that a number of policy makers have begun mentioning Dimon as a successor to Geithner, whose standing in Washington has suffered because of the country's high unemployment rate, the weakness of the dollar, the slow pace of the recovery and the government's mounting deficit.
Last week, Geithner faced a withering attack from some Republican members of the Joint Economic Committee, getting into a testy exchange with one congressman who at one point asked Geithner if he would step down
Dimon, meanwhile, has achieved rock star status during the financial crisis, having navigated JPMorgan through the recession and being a go-to guy when Uncle Sam last year needed Wall Street's help during the collapses of Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.
Furthermore, while many bank chiefs are facing heat over outsize bonuses, Dimon has repeatedly made clear he won't write fat checks to attract or keep talent.
People familiar with Dimon's thinking said he "would love to serve his country," and in recent weeks Dimon has had a noticeably higher profile in Washington, making frequent visits to government officials and earlier this month publishing an op-ed in the Washington Post that makes the case for letting large institutions that take big risks collapse rather than receive government aid.
"It is critical to the standing of the United States in the global financial economy to have a Treasury secretary who has the full support of the president and Congress; a person who has earned respect on their own as a result of hard-won battles in finance to represent this nation," said Dick Bove, a banking industry analyst at Rochdale Securities who this week will publish a report on Dimon. "That is not Timothy Geithner. It is Jamie Dimon."
The timing might be right for Dimon to pursue the Treasury post. He recently put into place a succession plan, and JPMorgan is currently considered one of the strongest banks in the country, even though it, too, faces a threat of sizable consumer-loan losses.
However, sources said Dimon also has tried to tamp down enthusiasm for his replacing Geithner, whom the JPMorgan boss continues to support and thinks is doing "a good job," according to sources.
He doesn't want to be perceived as gunning for Geithner's job and is said to be keenly aware of the anti-Wall Street sentiment gripping the country. He has told people he plans to stay at JPMorgan for another "six or seven years," according to one source.
A JPMorgan spokesman declined to comment.
Dimon has long been a big Democratic supporter, and his ties with Obama go back to when he ran Chicago-based Bank One. In addition, White House visitor logs show Dimon has been a repeated guest there. He also was a point man during the previous administration, rescuing Bear and WaMu.
This isn't the first time Dimon's name has been floated for Treasury secretary. He was considered a candidate last year and is still viewed as an executive who could be instrumental as Washington looks to overhaul the financial regulatory infrastructure.
As support for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wanes on Capitol Hill amid frustration with the Obama administration's handling of the economy, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is emerging as a potential replacement.
Sources tell The Post that a number of policy makers have begun mentioning Dimon as a successor to Geithner, whose standing in Washington has suffered because of the country's high unemployment rate, the weakness of the dollar, the slow pace of the recovery and the government's mounting deficit.
Last week, Geithner faced a withering attack from some Republican members of the Joint Economic Committee, getting into a testy exchange with one congressman who at one point asked Geithner if he would step down.
Dimon, meanwhile, has achieved rock star status during the financial crisis, having navigated JPMorgan through the recession and being a go-to guy when Uncle Sam last year needed Wall Street's help during the collapses of Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.
Furthermore, while many bank chiefs are facing heat over outsize bonuses, Dimon has repeatedly made clear he won't write fat checks to attract or keep talent.
People familiar with Dimon's thinking said he "would love to serve his country," and in recent weeks Dimon has had a noticeably higher profile in Washington, making frequent visits to government officials and earlier this month publishing an op-ed in the Washington Post that makes the case for letting large institutions that take big risks collapse rather than receive government aid.
"It is critical to the standing of the United States in the global financial economy to have a Treasury secretary who has the full support of the president and Congress; a person who has earned respect on their own as a result of hard-won battles in finance to represent this nation," said Dick Bove, a banking industry analyst at Rochdale Securities who this week will publish a report on Dimon. "That is not Timothy Geithner. It is Jamie Dimon."
The timing might be right for Dimon to pursue the Treasury post. He recently put into place a succession plan, and JPMorgan is currently considered one of the strongest banks in the country, even though it, too, faces a threat of sizable consumer-loan losses.
Read full article nypost.com

MORNING BRIEFS

Major Asian markets advance as gold price boosts miners
While markets in Japan were closed for a holiday, other major Asian share markets gained Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped 1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.9% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.7%. Taiwan's Taiex inched up 0.1%, India's Sensex was up 0.8% and Singapore's Straits Times Index added 1.3%. Meanwhile, New Zealand's NZX 50 closed flat, South Korea's Kospi Composite slid 0.1% and shares in the Philippines dropped 0.7%. The Wall Street Journal (23 Nov.)

Wall Street finds profit in buying home mortgages
Wall Street funds apparently found a way to make big money from the residential-mortgage crisis and leave U.S. taxpayers with most of the risk. The process begins with a hedge fund or a private-equity fund buying a block of mortgages at a deeply discounted price. Then homeowners are offered a principal reduction on their mortgages in return for refinancing the debt into new mortgages backed by government-sponsored entities such as the Federal Housing Administration. The mortgages can then be sold to another government-backed entity, such as Ginnie Mae. The New York Times (21 Nov.)

U.S. Treasury on thin ice with short-term debt coming due
The U.S. Treasury is scrambling to swap its short-term debt for long-term bonds before interest rates start climbing. "What a good country or a good squirrel should be doing is stashing away nuts for the winter. The United States is not only not saving nuts, it's eating the ones left over from the last winter," said Bill Gross, managing director of Pimco. The New York Times (22 Nov.)

2010 growth forecast for U.S. increased by business economists
The National Association for Business Economists ramped up its economic forecast for next year, predicting that businesses will stop eliminating jobs and start creating ones in a matter of months. The association said GDP in the U.S. will increase 2.9% in 2010, compared with a 2.6% expansion predicted last month. "While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change," said Lynn Reaser, the group's president. "Within a few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs." Reuters (23 Nov.)

Deficit has Obama wary of large program to create jobs
U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to avoid a big-ticket job program favored by some Democrats in Congress. He does not want to drive up the record-high deficit or raise taxes on the middle class. Instead, Obama signaled that he would support modest initiatives targeted at areas of the economy most likely to generate hiring. "There are two engines to our economic message, two ways to generate jobs," White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said. "One is small business, the other is energy." The U.S. could stimulate hiring in both by expanding tax credits or lending, he said. The Wall Street Journal (23 Nov.)

Economist: Potential wave of speculative capital threatens China
Uncertainty about the future value of China's currency raises the risk that the country will be hit with a wave of speculation that could trigger inflation, UBS economist Wang Tao said. She called for an immediate, one-time increase in the yuan's value to deal with the threat. "China's economic fundamentals mean that the yuan should strengthen," Wang said. "The central bank will find it harder to manage liquidity and inflation when a flood of speculative funds returns, betting on the yuan's appreciation." China Daily (Beijing) (23 Nov.)

Complexity results in sale of only a few "Super-BABs"
Issuers have flocked to capitalize on the U.S. government's offer to subsidize interest payments on Build America Bonds. However, few have taken advantage of recovery-zone economic-development bonds, even through they offer an even higher subsidy. The "Super-BABs" have a reputation for being overly complicated, but those involved in the few deals that have been made said issues can be easily overcome. The Bond Buyer (free content) (23 Nov.)

Investors increasingly bet rich nations will default on bonds
Concerns about the public finances of the U.K., Japan and the U.S. have caused the volume of activity in credit default swaps linked to those nations to double. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. said Italy's CDS volume is the highest of any individual nation. Of developed economies, Italy's debt burden is one of the highest. Meanwhile, the outstanding volume of CDS tied to Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and other emerging nations has fallen or remained flat during the past year. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (22 Nov.)

Sunday, November 22, 2009

CRAMER and GREENSPAN: Perfect Together, Now Can You Both Get Off the Air!

from thebigpicture
Cramer: “People Like Overpaying!”By Rick Ambrose - November 22nd, 2009, 7:30PM (CCN ­ Englewood Cliffs NJ)

With The Dow at new highs of 10440, CNBC¹s resident revisionist historian Jim Cramer encouraged what remains of his audience To “Buy! Buy! Buy!” recommending the purchase of Williams Sonoma (WSM $22) who sells over-priced culinary gadgets that few actually need. “People LOVE over­paying for things!” he exclaimed.
The Carnival Barker host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Mr. Cramer’s assertion has a solid basis in truth for those who listened to him. His most notable “Buy” recommendations have been Sears Holdings (SHLD) at $197 ­down 60%, Google (GOOG) at $700 ­ down 20% and the almost daily reiteration to “Buy” natural gas stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) at $43, which currently
trades for half that at $21. “Hey!” he told a befuddled caller “If you liked the stock at $43, you’ve got to be just nuts about it at $21!”
Coincidentally, Nielsen reports that his viewership has moved in lock-step with his recommendations, and is also down 50%.
Cramer remains his own biggest fan despite studies which show his picks have actually underperformed the markets and are no better than those chosen randomly by a chimpanzee.
Cramer’s most notable calls have been the “Buy!” recommendation of Bear Stearns at $65 which fell to $30 and then $2 the following week, before rebounding to $10. His call of the “market bottom,” which records show he made at 13,000, 12,500, 11,800, 10,000, and 9,000 before advising viewers to get out of the markets at 7900. His revisionist claim that he called the actual bottom at 6500 cannot be verified in print or on tape, and a $15,000 reward posted by a former follower for just such evidence remains unclaimed.
Apparently feeling better than a few weeks ago when he advised viewers to exit the market at 9100, Cramer extolled “I feel really good about the market here” as the Dow peaked for the day.

Geithner Should Step Down: If for no other reason than he bailed out Goldman Sachs

*I realize that most readers don't really understand what alot of this means, but I sure am tired of the smartest guys who ain't so smart anymore in the room thinking we are all backwater hillbilly morons. Isn't it amazing that Geithner actually said on Thursday that he got the best possible deal he could from counterparties involved with AIG? My hot dog vendor could have gotten a better deal. (Merrill Lynch sold their CDOs for .30 on the dollar. You gonna tell me the CDS written on all this shit was fetching .100?) One need only look at the attitude of most bankers in this country, then you will know its all a sham. Bankers believe that they provide an invaluable service to us needy bumpkins and if it weren't for them we wouldn't own a house, or a car or get an education. Thats right folks, if not for them we wouldn't be in this mess right now. So who is fooling who? Warren Buffett had to give GS a $10Billion infusion of cash, on top of the $12Billion that the US taxpayer gave GS by rescuing AIG. I guess those so called hedges that GS were done by the dumbest guys in the room, cause they sure as shit weren't going to save them from the decline in their precious stock price: $240 to $47. Geithner should do right by Obama and go home.

Revisiting a Fed Waltz With A.I.G.
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: November 21, 2009
A RAY of sunlight broke through the Washington fog last week when Neil M. Barofsky, special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, published his office’s report on the government bailout last year of the American International Group.
It’s must reading for any taxpayer hoping to understand why the $182 billion “rescue” of what was once the world’s largest insurer still ranks as the most troubling episode of the financial disaster. And it couldn’t have come at a more pivotal moment.
Many in Washington want to give more regulatory power to the Federal Reserve Board, the banking regulator that orchestrated the A.I.G. bailout. Through this prism, the actions taken in the deal by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the time, grow curiouser and curiouser.
Of special note in the report: the Fed failed to develop a workable rescue plan when A.I.G., swamped by demands that it pay off huge insurance contracts that it couldn’t make good on as the economy tanked, began to sink. The report takes the Fed to task as refusing to use its power and prestige to wrestle concessions from A.I.G.’s big, sophisticated and well-heeled trading partners when the government itself had to pay off the contracts.
The Fed, under Mr. Geithner’s direction, caved in to A.I.G.’s counterparties, giving them 100 cents on the dollar for positions that would have been worth far less if A.I.G. had defaulted. Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale and other banks were in the group that got full value for their contracts when many others were accepting fire-sale prices.
On the question of whether this payout was what the report describes as a “backdoor bailout” of A.I.G.’s counterparties, Mr. Barofsky concluded: “The very design of the federal assistance to A.I.G. was that tens of billions of dollars of government money was funneled inexorably and directly to A.I.G.’s counterparties.” The report noted that this was money the banks might not otherwise have received had A.I.G. gone belly-up.
The report zaps Fed claims that identifying banks that benefited from taxpayer largess would have dire consequences. Fed officials had refused to disclose the identities of the counterparties or details of the payments, warning “that disclosure of the names would undermine A.I.G.’s stability, the privacy and business interests of the counterparties, and the stability of the markets,” the report said.
Finally, Mr. Barofsky pokes holes in arguments made repeatedly over the past 14 months by Goldman Sachs, A.I.G.’s largest trading partner and recipient of $12.9 billion in taxpayer money in the bailout, that it had faced no material risk in an A.I.G. default — that, in effect, had A.I.G. cratered, Goldman wouldn’t have suffered damage.
Even before publishing this analysis, Mr. Barofsky had made a name for himself as one of the few truth tellers in Washington. While others estimate how much the taxpayer will make on various bailout programs, Mr. Barofsky has said that returns are extremely unlikely.
His office has also opened 65 cases to investigate potential fraud in various bailout programs. “When I first took office, I can’t tell you how many times I’d be having a sit-down and warning about potential fraud in the program and I would hear a response basically saying, ‘Oh, they’re bankers, and they wouldn’t put their reputations at risk by committing fraud,’ ” Mr. Barofsky told Bloomberg News a little over a week ago, adding: “I think we’ve done a good job of instilling a greater degree of skepticism that what comes from Wall Street isn’t necessarily the holy grail.”
Mr. Barofsky says the Fed failed to strong-arm the banks when it was negotiating payouts on the A.I.G. contracts. Rather than forcing the banks to accept a steep discount, or “haircut,” the Fed gave the banks $27 billion in taxpayer cash and allowed them to keep an additional $35 billion in collateral already posted by A.I.G. That amounted to about $62 billion for the contracts, which the report describes as “far above their market value at the time.”
Mr. Geithner, who oversaw those negotiations, said in an interview on Friday that the terms of the A.I.G. deal were the best he could get for taxpayers. He considered bailing out A.I.G. to be “offensive,’ he said, but deemed it necessary because a collapse would have undermined the financial system.
“We prevented A.I.G. from defaulting because our judgment was that the damage caused by failure would have been much more costly for the economy and the taxpayer,” Mr. Geithner said. “To most Americans, this looked like a deeply unfair outcome and they find it hard to see any direct benefit. But in fact, their savings are more valuable and secure today.”
nytimes.com

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Weekly Charts and Market Commentary

*With 3Q earnings season over, and Helicopter Ben and Timmy Geithner running out of taxpayer funded candy in their trick or treat good bag, what will Obama have to look forward to in 2010? Taxpayer and voter revolt. Incumbency is the name of the game, not pubbys versus jackass', although pubbys will try everything to paint themselves as saviors of the american populace. But I am less sanguine about pubbys saving the day in light of the fact that while it is indeed Obamas economy now, the YEARS leading up to this precise moment in time, are littered with pubbys far and wide. (Go here to see the ethics parade shattered) So don't be fooled and don't be discouraged. The beauty of life and economics is that change comes when you need it the most and we sure do need a change in Congress on both sides of the isle. I have added a few links for some better and more expanded views on what I have been saying all along: ITS JOBS STUPID! Restructure american consumer debt and get to the business of starting all over again this economic ferris wheel.
from John Mauldins Thoughts from the Frontline
Where the Wild Things Are
It Is Not Just Japan

V Is For Vicious Cycle
A. Gary Shilling

Abandon your dreams of a V-shaped recovery. The consumer is still too depressed to buy us a quick end to the recession.




from dshort.com
Bear Turns to Bull?
November 20, 2009 updated each market day
The S&P 500 declined 0.32% today, but the index is 61.3% above the March 9th close, which is 30.3% below the peak in October 2007. Here is a StockCharts.com snapshot showing the relationship of the S&P 500 to its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

The "Real" Mega-Bears
November 21, 2009 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This series is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.




from calculatedriskblog.com
The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total FDIC bank failures to 124 in 2009. The following graph shows bank failures by week in 2009.

This is the most failures per year since 1992 (181 failures).
As far as failures per week - there were 28 weeks during the S&L crisis when regulators closed 10 or more banks, and the peak was April 20, 1989 with 60 bank closures (there were 7 separate weeks with more than 30 closures in the late '80s and early '90s).

from EconomPic.com
The AP details the "best in 25+ year" run of the leading economic indicators that still somehow managed to disappoint:
A private forecast of economic activity over the next six months edged up less than expected in October, signaling slow, bumpy growth next year.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent last month. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected an 0.5percent gain.
The index climbed 1 percent in September.
"We're still getting some positive momentum, but it looks like things are slowing down again," said Jennifer Lee, economist at BMO Capital Markets. "A lot of the economic growth has largely been driven by the government stimulus packages."
The government's Cash for Clunkers program boosted the auto sector and consumer spending, while tax credits for homebuyers have propped up the housing market.
Still, the indicators have risen for seven straight months. The Conference Board said last month that the 5.7 growth rate in the six months through September was the strongest since 1983. That ticked down to 5 percent growth in the six months through October.
Taking a look at the details of that 7 month run, we see that October was a downside outlier in terms of performance (less "upside" in aggregate and consumer expectations / building permits causing a drag).





20 November 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -154 4507
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from ChartsEdge
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