THE DAILY TRADING RISK: February 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Monday, March 2, 2009

February 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

PMI at 35.8%
*up from 35.6%. I suppose that is a bright spot

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2009.

New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories Contracting
Prices Falling
Supplier Deliveries Faster

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in February for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy contracted for the fifth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Manufacturing continues to decline at a rapid rate in February. While production has slowed its rate of decline, employment continues to fall precipitously. Prices continue to decline, but price advantages are not sufficient to overcome manufacturers' apparent loss of demand. Survey respondents appear generally pessimistic about recovery in 2009. Some express hope that the stimulus package will help their industry."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
None of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth. The industries reporting contraction in February — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
"Customers across the board are being very cautious about ordering any stock." (Transportation Equipment)
"Business is very slow, some of which is due to seasonality, and some is due to the state of the economy." (Chemical Products)
"Asia previously was over 50 percent of our business and is now close to zero." (Machinery)
"Still seeing frequent attempts at increases while everything is reacting to an economy that is retracting." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Business slightly improved in February. May be the result of inventories finally coming into balance with lower demand." (Paper Products) more...

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SHORTING STOCK

Lets say you think GE is headed down in price. You would borrow 100 GE shares from A at say, $10, then sell them to B for $10, and when the price goes down to say $5, you would go into the market and buy them at $5 and give back the shares to A, pocketing the difference.

The Mechanics of a Short-Sale
by Andrew Tobin
When you sell stock short, you are selling shares you don’t own, hoping they will go down. Your broker just borrows someone else’s shares for you to sell. Eventually, you have to buy them back and return them (unless you’re really lucky and the stock goes all the way to zero and disappears, in which case there’s nothing to return). If you can buy the shares back for less then you got for them, you make a profit; if you have to pay more, you suffer a loss.

But where do brokers get shares to lend short-sellers? The first thing they do is look to see whether one of their other customers holds the same stock in a margin account. Anyone with a margin account has signed an agreement authorizing the broker to lend his shares. He will not know they’ve been loaned, and he needn’t worry about it either way. He’ll still get his dividend (it will come out of the short-seller’s account); he will still be able to sell at a moment’s notice. (The broker will just replace the shares by borrowing someone else’s shares. Or, if that proves impossible, he’ll "buy in" the short-seller, forcing him to cover his short — typically at a loss — and return the shares. This doesn’t often happen, but it definitely can. It’s one more risk of the hazardous short-selling game.)

Brokers love short sales, because although you take all the risk, they typically get the interest on the proceeds of the stock you’ve sold. That’s right: you shorted 1,000 shares of some stock at $50; well, that means the broker got $50,000 in cash money in return . . . but you won’t find that money in your account. It’s earning interest in his account, whether he be a deep discounter or the most expensive full-service firm on the block.
(Active, pushy customers can sometimes twist arms and, if they do enough short-selling, persuade their brokers to share some of that interest. But few even know to ask and fewer still will be told yes. If you do $20,000 a year in commissions, say, well, that might be a different story.)

If your own broker doesn’t have shares of stock in one of his other client’s margin accounts to lend you, he will call around to find a broker or institution that does have shares to lend. Harvard, with its $10 billion endowment, makes some good money this way.

When a broker or institution lends stock, the "rent" it charges is interest on the value of the shares. In other words, your own broker has to split some of the largess with the lender (making him all the less eager to share any of his share with you).

*to give you an indication of how crooked the market is lately, Fidelity has put out word that they will not lend out shares of IWM.

If you have more questions feel free to email me at tradebum@gmail.com.

THE DAILY TRADING RISK

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Monday, March 2, 2009

February 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

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