Bernanke buys bonds
As Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist, David Rosenberg, details below, however, today’s policy change is nothing short of Quantitative Easing (see below). The Fed is “now bringing out all the ammo in its arsenal”, according to Rosenberg. Treasury purchases ($300 billion), a huge expansion of MBS buying ($750 billion), a doubling of GSE debt purchases ($100 billion), and hints the TALF will buy distressed assets from banks will expand the Fed’s balance sheet by at least another 50%, says Mr. Rosenberg. He also points out that the Fed’s balance sheet will now grow to become 25% of GDP, an eye-popping level that should end all questions of whether or not we are like Japan during the decade just past. And, for those who think the time is ripe for upping their equity allocations, Mr. Rosenberg would like to remind them of what happened to buyers of the Nikkei 225 after Quantitative Easing was tried in Japan. Longs were treated to a 20% rally that lasted six weeks before stocks set new lows just four months later. Ultimately, predicts Rosenberg, QE helps bond buyers more than stock buyers. 
read the entire summary...
*I am convinced that Deflation must happen sooner rather than later.  If we get this rally and investors slip back in thinking it safe only to get crushed months later, then a good 33% will never come back into the market again, EVER.
Just caught up with your blog for this week. Brilliant observations and conclusions. Keep up the great work.
ReplyDeletethanks man....
ReplyDelete