Light Market Commentary: Or so it would seem

*I am still SHORT the financials, commodities and the market overall. Barry Ritholtz had likened the pace of the decline, which has been sweetended up with language from the fed and Cramer, akin to skydiving. You are dropping rapidly but then you open your parachute and you slow down, but you are still declining. So goes the state of the economy.

This Time, It’s For Real (Right?)
Posted by Paul Vigna on May 01, 2009
Since the economy first started cratering, way back in 2007, every tick up in the stock market has been greeted with proclamations from the sunshine crowd that the worst is over, that the bottom’s been hit, that recovery’s begun.

After the past two months, when every beaten-down, hard-luck stock has made amazing strides, the bulls are in full gallop. It’s almost enough to make even the biggest doubters doubt themselves.

But the problem for the bulls is, simply, this: the economy still stinks. There has been an improvement in the rate of decline, but there has been no reversal of that decline. More importantly for stocks, no catalyst has emerged to fuel the next bull market. And yet, every data point that comes in marginally less bad is treated as if Noah spotted land. more...



Worst Were The Best, Best Were The Worst
Posted by John Shipman on May 01, 2009
April was a great month for US stocks, though it’s interesting to note the names that did best in the DJIA are also ones that had been hit hardest, and seem to still have plenty of exposure to the recession and/or financial crisis — AmEx, BofA, Caterpillar, GE and DuPont.

Stocks that did worst were previously safe-haven plays, names that appear more insulated from recession — Merck, Wal-Mart, McDonald’s, Exxon and Coke. Wonder what that says about the rally, and if that dynamic will continue.

US stock futures shaded higher, but not quite enough to suggest any early direction for markets. April ISM at 10:00am. S&P’s up 3.40; DJ futures up 23. Ten-year higher, yield at 3.11%.