MORNING BRIEFS

*I thought unemployment was going down...
Wave of airline layoffs might follow American's 1,600
The loss of 1,600 jobs at American Airlines could be quickly followed by more layoffs at other U.S. airlines, forced by a rapid falloff in air travel, analysts said. Delta Air Lines and US Airways said they are looking for ways to cut labor costs. "Unless there is a huge upturn in business travel propensity and spending, it's inevitable there will be further cutbacks in capacity on the international side," consultant Robert Mann said. Bloomberg (12 Jun.)

*let's see, who should we respect more? IMF who didn't think we were in a recession for over a year? Or World Bank who has been right on.....
IMF, World Bank offer dueling economic forecasts
The International Monetary Fund boosted its forecast for a global economic recovery next year, predicting 2.4% growth. Meanwhile, the World Bank said it expects 2009 to be worse than previously forecast. The agency predicted that the global economy will shrink by "close to 3%." The Wall Street Journal (12 Jun.)

*gasoline price hikes anyone?
U.S. retail sales edge up 0.5%
Reversing two months of decline, U.S. retail sales increased 0.5% in May compared with April, according to the Commerce Department. "It's price-driven," said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Consumers are prioritizing, focusing their spending on necessities." The New York Times (11 Jun.)

*speaks for itself
Global recovery to be "long slog," Obama adviser cautions
Trying to cool rising hopes for a swift recovery worldwide, Paul Volcker, chairman of U.S. President Barack Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, warned that ending the downturn will be lengthy and unpleasant. "A long slog, with continued high levels of unemployment, seems to be in store," he said in Beijing. The Times (London) (12 Jun.)

*something fishy in the risk department? Nooooooo
Trend of sovereign credit default swaps puzzles insiders
The wealthiest nations in the world have announced huge deficits, and credit rating agencies have threatened downgrades. But an index of spreads on credit default swaps shows that risk is at half of what it was in February, before the state of public finances was fully revealed. Dave Klein of CDR, which maintains the index, acknowledged that the trend is puzzling. The Economist (11 Jun.)