MORNING YAPS

*and UPS and FedEx aren't doing too well either. So things really are worse than Biden and Rohmer thought.
Alcoa To Post Loss, but What Does It Mean for the Economy?
Alcoa, whose results are traditionally viewed as an indicator of the country's economic health, is expected to post a third consecutive quarterly loss this week.
But many on Wall Street no longer see the aluminum producer's numbers as a bellwether portending either a deeper recession or an easing of the global downturn.
"It's a large company in a major industry and it is the first to report, so it gets special recognition," said Joseph Battipaglia, a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co in Yardley, Pennsylvania.
"But it's only telling you about the health of the aluminum industry and that's not very good right now.
"FedEx and UPS are better signs of a change in direction," he added, referring to the two largest U.S. shipping or package-delivery companies. "I wouldn't take what Alcoa says as a significant indication of how the American or global economy is faring." cnbc.com

*we'll see if "less worse" is replaced with "better than zero"
Earnings Drop Worldwide as Job Losses Hurt Consumers
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Earnings at such companies as Ford Motor Co. and ArcelorMittal may continue to decline in the next three months as the highest unemployment in a quarter-century keeps consumers from spending. The year-over-year profit slide for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members may narrow to 21 percent from July through September, after declines of an estimated 34 percent in the second quarter and about 60 percent in the year’s first three months, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg. Earnings may rise by year-end based on comparisons to late 2008, which was roiled by the meltdown in financial markets.

*now why aren't we hearing this from our government?
German officials say banks need to boost lending
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck and Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said domestic banks are failing to pass on low interest rates to borrowers despite getting cheap liquidity from the European Central Bank. The ministered warned that the situation might force the government to implement its own "solutions" to the problem. "The banks prefer to put this money into trading currencies, bonds or shares instead of passing it on in the form of loans," Steinbruck said. "If we were to experience a real credit crunch in the second half of the year, the government would have to sit down with the Bundesbank to look for solutions." Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (06 Jul.)

*read this over the weekend. Considering Obama, who is on his first Russian Summit, and I now find that he isn't traveling alone, US business execs are over there with him and US has invested 2.8B in Russia in 1Q of 2009, this is a must read. Why are these ijiots considering investing in Russia?
Red tape halts Ikea's investment in Russia
Swedish retailer Ikea suspended all investment in Russia and delayed the opening of at least 30 stores because of what it considers overwhelming bureaucratic obstacles. Ikea's country manager for Russia said the company made the decision because of "the unpredictability of the administrative processes in some regions." Other officials hinted that the problem is corruption. BusinessWeek (02 Jul.)

*people don't realize that China was once the economic power of the world. Better start learning Chinese kids.
China’s Political Battle to Buy Strategic Interests Around The Globe
China is in the midst of something just short of a global buying spree of crude reserves, metal and mining companies, tech concerns, and manufacturing operations. It would be easy to say that the effort will lose its momentum when the economy of the world’s most populous nation hits a wall as the Japanese did in the 1990s. China’s central government and the nation’s huge consumer base may allow the country to avoid that fate, even if its massive export base is temporarily damaged by the global recession. 24/7 wall street

*but then again...maybe China not so good
Scores Reported Dead After Unrest in China
Clashes between Uighur demonstrators and police in northwest China killed 140 people, in what appears to be one of the country's deadliest episodes of unrest in decades. Uighur activists said hundreds of Uighurs, many of them students, had gathered Sunday to protest racial discrimination and call for government action against the perpetrators of an attack last month on Uighur migrant workers at a toy factory in southern China. In that incident, a group of Han Chinese broke into a factory dormitory housing Uighur workers. State media reported that two people were killed. Uighur groups say the death toll may have been higher. wsj.com