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Thursday, August 6, 2009

July Retail Sales Stink and so does Unemployment Claims: Think There's a Correlation?

via Mish's blog


UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Aug. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 588,000. The 4-week moving average was 555,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of 560,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 25, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.7 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 25 was 6,310,000, an increase of 69,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,241,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,278,750, a decrease of 148,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,427,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.522 million.

*job numbers have fallen but 550,000 is nothing to rejoice about. And if you take into account that these are new claims, the numbers are even more staggering for people who have been unemployed for more than six months. Is it any wonder that consumers aren't spending? Still think they are saving? NOT! They no longer have any disposable income.

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