Trading Now

Trading Now

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Charts for the Week from

Bear Turns to Bull?
October 16, 2009 updated each market day
The S&P 500 closed the day 60.0% above the March 9th low, which is 30.5% below the peak in October 2007.

The "Real" Mega-Bears
October 17, 2009 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This series is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

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