Trading Now

Trading Now

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

US Dollar will be the long term play and here's why

*I was saying to a friend this morning that since everyone thinks the shredding of the dollar is likely to continue, he may want to consider buying now. Because I believe just the opposite. Currencies around the world will get their due in due time. Australia raising rates already, Canada claiming they have the best banking system in the world, the recession is over, China will save us all....BLAH BLAH BLAH! Do you know that in 2007 CRAMER was yabbering that the subprime crisis is over and the bottom was in? So before you throw the towel in on ole greenback, you just remember that there's a new guy in town and he ain't no dummy. -Tradebum

The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity
Measured in euros, U.S. per capita GDP is down 25% since 2000.
If you want to know why the dollar has been falling this week and gold hit a new high, look no further than the weak jobs numbers last Friday and the weak communique issued over the weekend at the G-7 meeting in Istanbul. Deploring "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates" isn't exactly a ringing defense of the greenback. And 9.8% unemployment convinced markets that monetary policy will remain loose regardless of dollar weakness.
Bond buyer Bill Gross of the Pimco fund summed up the situation nicely in a recent CNBC interview. Asked whether low interest rates will weaken the dollar, the influential allocator of global capital said: "I think that's part of the administration's plan. It's obviously not announced—the 'strong dollar' is always the policy, so to speak. One of the ways a country gets out from under its debt burden is to devalue."
On the surface, the weak dollar may not look so bad, especially for Wall Street. Gold, oil, the euro and equities are all rising as much as the dollar declines. They stay even in value terms and create lots of trading volume. And high unemployment keeps the Fed on hold, so anyone with extra dollars or the connections to borrow dollars wins by buying nondollar assets.
Investors have been playing this weak-dollar trade for years, diverting more and more dollars into commodities, foreign currencies and foreign stock markets. This is the Third-World way of asset allocation.
Corporations play this game for bigger stakes, borrowing billions in dollars to expand their foreign businesses. As the pound slid in the 1950s and '60s and the British Empire crumbled, the corporations that prospered were the ones that borrowed pounds aggressively in order to expand abroad. Though British equities rose in pound terms, they generally underperformed gold and foreign equities. At the end of empire, the giant sucking sound was from British capital and jobs moving offshore as the pound sank.

No comments:

Post a Comment


Wikinvest Wire