The summary is that things are slowly getting better economically but unemployment will continue to be a drag for years to come. Yes, YEARS, to come. And I don't buy for one second that things are slowly getting better. Go to a mall and see for yourself. So after listening to David Rosenberg's near depression take on our economy, is it any wonder? Should you be surprised the US stcok market and the world markets for that matter, have not plunged into abyss oblivion? Not really when you take into consideration that PPT has decided to prop it up no matter how bad the news. But they can't do it forever. With GDP less than they all expected and consumers having no real job prospects with a decent wage to pay for the propped up prices from gas to housing to food based on fed policy, you all better get ready to start invading those 201Ks and IRAs. The future seems dim monetarily but at least we are all in the boat together.
Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% annual rate July through September after falling by 0.7% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported. A month ago, the department first estimated that GDP rose by an annual 3.5% in the third quarter.
The latest Case Shiller Index is out, and it fell 8.9% year over year, but rose a modest 0.3% for the month. The Home Price Index improved in Q3 of 2009 — its 2nd consecutive quarterly increase. Prices declined 8.9% in the quarter versus Q3 2008.
Prior Quarterly falls were worse, with the index falling 14.7% Q2 ‘09, and 19.0% in Q1. The month-to-month data improved, albeit slightly, for the 5th consecutive month.
Other data points worth noting:
• 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their fifth consecutive monthly increase with September’s report.
• Nationally, the Composite rose by 3.1% in both Q2 & Q3 2009.
• Average home prices in Q3 2009 are at similar levels to Q3 2003 — 6 years earlier;
• Los Angeles, New York and Washington values are 70-80% above their 2000 averages;
• Detroit is still at only 73% of its 2000 value;
• Prices in Las Vegas (the most depressed market) have declined for 37 consecutive months; Peak-to-trough, Vegas is down -55.4%.
David Rosenberg on US Near Depression
BDI continues to start its decline
24 November 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -83 4340