Trading Now

Trading Now

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Weekly Charts and Market Commentary

*With 3Q earnings season over, and Helicopter Ben and Timmy Geithner running out of taxpayer funded candy in their trick or treat good bag, what will Obama have to look forward to in 2010? Taxpayer and voter revolt. Incumbency is the name of the game, not pubbys versus jackass', although pubbys will try everything to paint themselves as saviors of the american populace. But I am less sanguine about pubbys saving the day in light of the fact that while it is indeed Obamas economy now, the YEARS leading up to this precise moment in time, are littered with pubbys far and wide. (Go here to see the ethics parade shattered) So don't be fooled and don't be discouraged. The beauty of life and economics is that change comes when you need it the most and we sure do need a change in Congress on both sides of the isle. I have added a few links for some better and more expanded views on what I have been saying all along: ITS JOBS STUPID! Restructure american consumer debt and get to the business of starting all over again this economic ferris wheel.
from John Mauldins Thoughts from the Frontline
Where the Wild Things Are
It Is Not Just Japan

V Is For Vicious Cycle
A. Gary Shilling

Abandon your dreams of a V-shaped recovery. The consumer is still too depressed to buy us a quick end to the recession.

Bear Turns to Bull?
November 20, 2009 updated each market day
The S&P 500 declined 0.32% today, but the index is 61.3% above the March 9th close, which is 30.3% below the peak in October 2007. Here is a snapshot showing the relationship of the S&P 500 to its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

The "Real" Mega-Bears
November 21, 2009 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This series is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total FDIC bank failures to 124 in 2009. The following graph shows bank failures by week in 2009.

This is the most failures per year since 1992 (181 failures).
As far as failures per week - there were 28 weeks during the S&L crisis when regulators closed 10 or more banks, and the peak was April 20, 1989 with 60 bank closures (there were 7 separate weeks with more than 30 closures in the late '80s and early '90s).

The AP details the "best in 25+ year" run of the leading economic indicators that still somehow managed to disappoint:
A private forecast of economic activity over the next six months edged up less than expected in October, signaling slow, bumpy growth next year.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent last month. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected an 0.5percent gain.
The index climbed 1 percent in September.
"We're still getting some positive momentum, but it looks like things are slowing down again," said Jennifer Lee, economist at BMO Capital Markets. "A lot of the economic growth has largely been driven by the government stimulus packages."
The government's Cash for Clunkers program boosted the auto sector and consumer spending, while tax credits for homebuyers have propped up the housing market.
Still, the indicators have risen for seven straight months. The Conference Board said last month that the 5.7 growth rate in the six months through September was the strongest since 1983. That ticked down to 5 percent growth in the six months through October.
Taking a look at the details of that 7 month run, we see that October was a downside outlier in terms of performance (less "upside" in aggregate and consumer expectations / building permits causing a drag).

20 November 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -154 4507

from ChartsEdge
One-Day Market Maps

No comments:

Post a Comment


Wikinvest Wire