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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Chart of the Day from

Bear Turns to Bull?
December 10, 2009 updated each market day
The S&P 500 closed the day up 0.58%. The index is 62.9% above the March 9th close, which is 29.6% below the peak in October 2007. Here is a snapshot showing the relationship of the S&P 500 to its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

Bear Market Intersection
December 9, 2009 new update
This illustration to the right is a close-up of my Four Bad Bears chart. It shows the similar percentage decline from the previous high for three of our four bears about 26 months after that previous high.

The green line is the 2000 Tech Crash continuing to its ultimate bottom. The pink is the 1973 Oil Crisis bear in sustained recovery mode. Of course this comparison is merely a bit of charting trivia. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how our current market, the blue line, fares in the wake of this holiday season of traditionally excessive consumption. Fourth quarter earnings won't start the reporting process for a couple of months, and comps with last year's dismal sales will be a low target to beat.

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