From the Chart Store: S&P500 Swing Analog 1938, 1974, 2003

By Barry Ritholtz - February 16th, 2010, 12:00PM Ron Griess of The Chart Store looks to history for some analogies to the current market. He looked at 1938, 1942, 1974, 1982 and 2003. He rebalanced them to the same starting point, and noted highs and lows. Here are 3 leading candidates — as I have said previously, my money is on 1974:






*The Big Pictures Ritholtz says his moneys on 1974. My money is on 1938, if for no other reason than because consumers have no jobs and no credit and will soon be out of not only a house, but likely their car or truck too. We need DEFLATION in the worst possible way. Wages have NEVER kept up with the rate of inflation and over the past 20 some odd years we have had nothing but INFLATION. The federal government can only keep this stock market propped up for so long. Sooner or later their money needs to shut up what it hasn't put up: EARNINGS plain and simple without cost cutting. Until you allow everyone a free pass on their debt, NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING, will have changed except business as usual will be over for the next decade. Its no surprise that congressional players are not running for reelection. Congress is less than DO NOTHING. They are responsible for the biggest perpetration of fraud on the world not seen since the great depression. IJIOTS! -Tradebum