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Friday, August 14, 2009


Consumer Sentiment Sucks
Rutgers/University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading drops to 63.2 from 66 as mood darkens.
*Analysts had expected 70. IJIOTS
Stocks are plummeting on consumer sentiment. Fear not, the government's spending sentiment will come and save the day and the market will rise up to 10,000!

Federal Reserve Statistical Release
Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since December 2007. Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July; most of the increase was due to a jump in motor vehicle assemblies from an annual rate of 4.1 million units in June to 5.9 million units in July. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.4 percent, reflecting unseasonably mild temperatures in July, and the output of mines increased 0.8 percent. At 96.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 13.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. In July, the capacity utilization rate for total industry edged up to 68.5 percent, a level 12.4 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average.

*Autos lead the way, which makes sense considering the cash for clunkers program is expected to raise 3Q GDP to >3%. But capacity is still oversized and until companies start shedding some of that, by selling things, industrial output will remain weak at best.


The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased
0.2 percent in July before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last
12 months the index has fallen 2.1 percent, as a 28.1 percent decline in
the energy index since its July 2008 peak has more than offset increases
of 0.9 percent in the food index and 1.5 percent in the index for all
items less food and energy.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July
following a 0.7 percent increase in June. Small declines in the food and
energy indexes offset a small increase in the index for all items less
food and energy. The food index declined 0.3 percent in July with all six
major grocery store food groups posting declines. The energy index, which
rose 7.4 percent in June, fell 0.4 percent in July. Decreases in the
indexes for gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity more than offset an
increase in the index for natural gas.

*as more and more business' shed jobs because they cannot sell products to debt weary consumers, the CPI will continue it's DEFLATIONARY decline, a much needed outcome as far as I am concerned.

BDI Index: +67 to 2752
*ordinarily I might think this is a positive sign, but nothing is ordianry about this market. That being said, this leads me to believe that they will try to get to 1025 on S&P before they let it go down to 950. But my opinion changes every day so go figure. CAVEAT EMPTOR.

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