Trading Now

Trading Now

Friday, August 14, 2009


*I read the other night that regardless of all those all nighters at the feds printing press, we aren't likely to see any real risk of inflation for quite some time. The reason: Banks have so many losses that have yet to be written down. Banks are hoarding cash because they don't know what the value of the assets are at present and wouldn't want to be undercapitalized leaving them caught with their pants down in the 4Q. They have to use any excess cash that they get to borrow from fed at 0% to They aren't stupid youi know. They didn't get us into this mess and then get government to bail them out because they weren't the smartest guys in the room. Bank of America said late last year that you need us more than we need you. But they know their fees will not be the same and they still want to hang onto top talent by offering the same rates of bonus' so they can't lend to us (we don't deserve it anyway).
So is it any wonder that CNBC and other media outlets have been soliciting greedy fools to buy bank stocks this week because look who was buying bank stock shares in the 2Q. But when someone is buying it means that there is someone selling on the other side. And just when you got in we will hear the disclosure that these same masters of the universe sold their stakes at end of 3Q, long after the carnage has wreaked its typhoon like magic on unsuspecting ijiots that can't see the gravy through the white bread.
Just remember, naysayers on CNBC said we have no subprime problem and the goldie locks economy being fueled by american consuers would never end. No, that wasn't in March of 2009, that was in 2008. After starting to crash in October of 07, Krudlow and his phony cronies were doing the pump and dump to you all everlastin suckers out there that helped run the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE to new highs of 14,000 only to wake up next morning with your 201Ks still in the hands of those same louts who convince you this is the time to buy buy buy.


Some perspective

*as you can see, you pretty much haven't made any money for the past ten years, nothing new here.

but this chart from shows recovery based on two things at the time: lowering of interest rates and housing boom. We have neither. Interest rates at 0 to .25% and unless we are prepared to bulldoze inventory across the nation, no housing boom to help fuel any real recovery.

I like this chart the best. I think this is more realistic on what's to come. Unemployment likely to be prolonged and once companies start to show a lack of earnings with bare bones staff because CONSUMERS HAVE NO MONEY, then company defaults will rise and with that a long line of out of work job seekers dependent on a government that couldn't see that the levees need of $14b would have saved us all >$200b. Congress is the problem because Ronald Reagan gave ceded power to Wall Street. And Congress is BANKRUPT, they just threatened Moody's if they say it ain't true.


And when the crash comes yet again and more and more people go to cash if ever they wade back into the largest ponzi scheme on the planet even Bernies mother would be proud, the fed will convince Congress to tax money market accounts so you and I will be forced to get out of cash. So what to do? Take your cash and put it in a savings account or checking account and have plenty of reserve cash in a safe at home or under your mattress.

*FYI: I told a friend to sell her Citigroup after I read something about subprime in March of 2007. Did she listen? Her adviser told her in his EXPERT opinion, she should stay and hold. She finally sold it herself after it went from $50 to $40 and I screamed at her to GET OUT! I also starting telling people to go to cash and get out of this stock market right after we hit 14,000. And I was telling anyone who would listen to BUY Ford stock for a long term investment, it will be left standing you watch. So I was right on all counts and have reaped many benefits for my trouble. So I am begging you AGAIN: get out! CASH IS KING! All good things come to those who wait. Could they run it to 10,000? Absolutely, without a doubt. But it is better to be out wishing I was in than in wishing I had gotten out when she told me so....
Have a great Weekend!

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