THE DAILY TRADING RISK: We are all Subprime now.

Friday, August 21, 2009

We are all Subprime now.

*I have been saying for a year now that prime mortgages are not only much larger than subprime, but also are defaulting at a much faster rate. CalculatedRisk has put together some charts to prove the point. The question becomes: when is the banking sector going to have to writedown these good to bad loans and let us investors see just who isn't insolvent by getting the government out of the making a market for banks business. The answer? Never. The federal government under Helicopter Ben and Treasurer Geithner will cover their arses by buying up all the mortgages. Fannie and Freddie will look like WalMart and the Dollar Store. Get used to it fellow taxpayers: We are all SUBPRIME now!

from calculatedrisk.blog
This graph shows the U.S. mortgage market by type. There are about 45 million loans included in the MBA survey, and that is about 85% of the U.S. market.
This is a general breakdown, and apparently Alt-A is included in Prime (it would be helpful to break that out).

The second graph shows the breakdown by type for loans that are either seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent) or in the foreclosure process. There are about 3.6 million loans in this category.

Clearly subprime is disproportionately represented (much higher delinquency rate), but now over half the loans in this category are Prime - and the delinquency rate is growing faster for Prime. This is now a Prime foreclosure crisis.

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Books

Debt of Honor by Tom Clancy
Den of Thieves by James B. Stewart
Fundamentals of Investing in Oil by Chris Termeer
How We Got Here by Andy Kessler
How the Stock Market Works by Dalton NYIF
How to Day Trade Stocks by Harvey Walsh
Liars Poker by Michael Lewis
Manias, Panics and Crashes by Kindleberger and Aliber
Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
One Good Trade by Mike Bellafiore
Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence G. MacMillan
Reminiscinces of a Stock Operator
Secrets of a Pivot Boss by Frank Ochoa
Steidlmayer on Markets
Street Smarts by Linda Raschke
Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy
Thank You for Arguing by Jay Heinrichs
The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson
The Big Short by Michael Lewis
The Forgotten Man by Amity Shlaes
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
The Logical Trader by Mark Fisher
The Playbook by Mike Bellafiore
The Power Game by Hedrick Smith
The Shack by Wm. Paul Young
The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind
The Taylor Trading Technique by George Taylor
The Traders Bible by Richard Wyckoff
Unconventional Success by David Swensen
When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein
Women & Money by Suze Orman

SHORTING STOCK

Lets say you think GE is headed down in price. You would borrow 100 GE shares from A at say, $10, then sell them to B for $10, and when the price goes down to say $5, you would go into the market and buy them at $5 and give back the shares to A, pocketing the difference.

The Mechanics of a Short-Sale
by Andrew Tobin
When you sell stock short, you are selling shares you don’t own, hoping they will go down. Your broker just borrows someone else’s shares for you to sell. Eventually, you have to buy them back and return them (unless you’re really lucky and the stock goes all the way to zero and disappears, in which case there’s nothing to return). If you can buy the shares back for less then you got for them, you make a profit; if you have to pay more, you suffer a loss.

But where do brokers get shares to lend short-sellers? The first thing they do is look to see whether one of their other customers holds the same stock in a margin account. Anyone with a margin account has signed an agreement authorizing the broker to lend his shares. He will not know they’ve been loaned, and he needn’t worry about it either way. He’ll still get his dividend (it will come out of the short-seller’s account); he will still be able to sell at a moment’s notice. (The broker will just replace the shares by borrowing someone else’s shares. Or, if that proves impossible, he’ll "buy in" the short-seller, forcing him to cover his short — typically at a loss — and return the shares. This doesn’t often happen, but it definitely can. It’s one more risk of the hazardous short-selling game.)

Brokers love short sales, because although you take all the risk, they typically get the interest on the proceeds of the stock you’ve sold. That’s right: you shorted 1,000 shares of some stock at $50; well, that means the broker got $50,000 in cash money in return . . . but you won’t find that money in your account. It’s earning interest in his account, whether he be a deep discounter or the most expensive full-service firm on the block.
(Active, pushy customers can sometimes twist arms and, if they do enough short-selling, persuade their brokers to share some of that interest. But few even know to ask and fewer still will be told yes. If you do $20,000 a year in commissions, say, well, that might be a different story.)

If your own broker doesn’t have shares of stock in one of his other client’s margin accounts to lend you, he will call around to find a broker or institution that does have shares to lend. Harvard, with its $10 billion endowment, makes some good money this way.

When a broker or institution lends stock, the "rent" it charges is interest on the value of the shares. In other words, your own broker has to split some of the largess with the lender (making him all the less eager to share any of his share with you).

*to give you an indication of how crooked the market is lately, Fidelity has put out word that they will not lend out shares of IWM.

If you have more questions feel free to email me at tradebum@gmail.com.

THE DAILY TRADING RISK

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Friday, August 21, 2009

We are all Subprime now.

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