Trading Now

Trading Now

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Weekend Tidbits

Goldman Sachs gets a stock price thrashing. BP and oil rigs and drillers get into share trouble over what is turning out to be an oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico larger than the Exxon Valdez. And the S&P 500 is possibly looking to correct another 10% while oil prices are stabilizing around $80 a barrel give or take. What does this tell me exactly? The drive to 12,000 on the Dow is far from over but its likelihood is becoming more of a challenge than the stock markets latest bubbler devils were hoping. I would be buying bonds and TRADING stocks. What that means is hide your cash in 30year treasuries ONLY and learn how to trade stocks from day to day or week to week. Its a fools game for sure and this fool absolutely loves it, but making foolish decisions doesn't have to be your creed. Don't say I didn't warn you. The federal government has been the ONLY market maker in not only the bond and stock markets, but the housing market, the oil market and just about any other economic enterprise from here to kingdom come. Sooner or later, and I put my cashola on sooner, the kingdom will come crashing down yet again, only this time, alot more people will be hurt because they have used up the stimulus sentiment and we have lost our stomach for deficits and debt because you made the fateful decision to bail out a worldwide industry of stupidity and greed which built absolutely nothing of substance. In other words: we ALL let you Congress, sell ourselves to the devil in the name of I am rich afterall. Have a great weekend anyway cuz we're all subprime now baby. -Tradebum


from calculatedrisk.com96.5%of Mortgages Backed by Government entities in Q1

Obama was boasting about those GDP numbers yesterday so heres a chart to give you an indication of just who is making up the GDP growth and it ain't the private sector and it ain't jobs.

*and here's a chart on oil prices. Ridiculous really.

Is the S&P 500 at Fair Value?
The chart shows the relative value of the S&P 500 as compared to nominal GDP (to be more specific... the S&P 500 index / nominal GDP in billions $$) since 1929.

And the importance of such a measure.... the ten year forward annualized change in the S&P 500 index vs. the starting S&P 500 to nominal GDP ratio since 1929.

30 April 2010
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -5 3354

*this shows that the cost of shipping commodities around the world and it is decreasing again.

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